Arkansas State Red Wolves lead Ball State Cardinals 19-18 with 8:41 left in the 2nd. The model has the Cardinals at 65 percent, and no crowd picks are in yet.
NCAA Women's Basketball · · John E. Worthen Arena · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Ball State Cardinals: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreArkansas State 74, Ball State 84 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerBall State 65%
- Pregame Projected scoreBall State 69, Arkansas State 62
- Model spreadBall State −7 total 130.5
- Margin10 projected 7
- Total158 projected 130.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Arkansas State Red Wolves or Ball State Cardinals: the bandwagon
Axle 35–65Market –
FinalPregame: BALL 65%Baseline: BALL 77.8% (+12.5)Big swing: 21.3 ptsClutch window: 1:04
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARST | 17 | 15 | 21 | 21 | 74 |
| BALL | 18 | 18 | 25 | 23 | 84 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ball State Cardinals win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to BALL+4.5 points for BALL over the last 5:00
Big swing21.3 ptstoward BALL at 4:33 of game time
Clutch window1:04within 5 points in the final quarter
BaselineBALL 77.8%game average, +12.5 points from the pregame 65.3%
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Ball State Cardinals live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ARST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | ARST24/70 | BALL27/61 |
| 3-pointers | ARST7/37 | BALL5/19 |
| Free throws | ARST19/30 | BALL25/36 |
| Rebounds | ARST37 | BALL51 |
| Assists | ARST12 | BALL15 |
| Turnovers | ARST20 | BALL26 |
| Steals | ARST12 | BALL3 |
| Blocks | ARST0 | BALL4 |
| Points in the paint | ARST32 | BALL42 |
| Fast-break points | ARST2 | BALL8 |
| Fouls | ARST32 | BALL25 |
| Largest lead | ARST4 | BALL13 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Ball State Cardinals team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ARST | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ARST74 | BALL84 |
| Average win probability | ARST22% | BALL78% |
| Longest scoring run | ARST+5 | BALL+7 |
| Time leading | ARST5:41 | BALL25:45 |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Ball State Cardinals odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET
Red Wolves35%
Win chanceCardinals65%
SpreadBALL −7closing model spread
Total130.5
Moneyline+188away / −188homeaway / home
Line movementBALL win chance, 20 stored lines
+2 pts for BALL between Oct 29 and Nov 2
72%58%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | BALL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:46 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:16 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 65% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 65% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 66% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 66% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- BALL 1631 · ARST 1613
- Home spread
- −7
- Stored
- Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET · 2026-11-03 01:51 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Arkansas State Red Wolves 74, Ball State Cardinals 84. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Red WolvesCardinals
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Red WolvesCardinals
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Ball State Cardinals prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cardinals a 7-point favorite at home, with a 65% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Cardinals 1643 (43rd of 356), Red Wolves 1602 (75th). The Cardinals are 0-0; the Red Wolves are 0-0. The Cardinals have won 4 of their last 5; the Red Wolves 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Cardinals won 1, the Red Wolves 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Ball State Cardinals | L 74–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | L 62–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland State Vikings | W 71–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | W 83–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Radford Highlanders | W 83–52 | – | – | matchup |
Ball State Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Arkansas State Red Wolves | W 84–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | L 65–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bowling Green Falcons | W 75–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | W 78–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio Bobcats | W 86–85 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State Cardinals at Arkansas State Red Wolves | 68–66 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Ball State Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Red Wolves0-0 5th · -
- Red Wolves rating1602 75th of 356, 1 games
- Cardinals0-0 4th · -
- Cardinals rating1643 43rd of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ARSTWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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No stances yet today on $ARSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 4th · streak -
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BALLWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BALLWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BALLWBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BALLWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ball State Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ball State Cardinals
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Final: Arkansas State 74, Ball State 84. Bandwagon's model had the Ball State at 65% and projected Ball State 69, Arkansas State 62; spread Ball State −7, total 130.5.