Sam Houston Bearkats vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction, odds and picks, November 13, 2026
- Projected winnerIllinois 83%
- Projected scoreIllinois 80, Sam Houston 69
- Model spreadIllinois −11.5 total 149
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Sam Houston Bearkats or Illinois Fighting Illini: the bandwagon
Axle 17–83Market –
Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Illinois Fighting Illini live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Illinois Fighting Illini team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SHSU | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SHSU– | ILL– |
| Average win probability | SHSU– | ILL– |
| Longest scoring run | SHSU– | ILL– |
| Time leading | SHSU– | ILL– |
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Illinois Fighting Illini odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ILL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:25 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:28 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:33 PM ET | 83% | +1 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:56 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:46 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:41 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:21 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 82% | −4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 86% | — |
- Ratings
- ILL 1699 · SHSU 1536
- Home spread
- −11.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Fighting Illini a 11.5-point favorite at home, with a 83% chance to win. The model total is 149. Ratings: Fighting Illini 1699 (9th of 361), Bearkats 1536 (116th). The Fighting Illini are 1-0; the Bearkats are 0-1. The Fighting Illini have won 4 of their last 5; the Bearkats 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Sam Houston Bearkats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Alabama Crimson Tide | L 74–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 83–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | L 73–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico State Aggies | W 69–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liberty Flames | L 72–79 | – | – | matchup |
Illinois Fighting Illini
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | W 120–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 62–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | W 71–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Cougars | W 65–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VCU Rams | W 76–55 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Sam Houston Bearkats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Illinois Fighting Illini: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bearkats0-1 10th · L1
- Bearkats rating1536 116th of 361, 1 games
- Fighting Illini1-0 1st · W1
- Fighting Illini rating1699 9th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SHSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sam Houston Bearkats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ILLMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Illinois Fighting Illini bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini
Sign in to post a take on $SHSUMBBILLMBB261114: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Illinois 83% to win. Projected score Illinois 80, Sam Houston 69; spread Illinois −11.5, total 149. Sam Houston Bearkats at Illinois Fighting Illini, Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ET.