Alabama Crimson Tide leads Sam Houston 14-10 with 9:36 left in the 1st. The model has the home side at 80%, and no crowd picks are in yet on this one.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Coleman Coliseum · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Alabama Crimson Tide: final score and how the prediction did, November 3, 2026
- Final scoreSam Houston 74, Alabama 96 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerAlabama 80%
- Pregame Projected scoreAlabama 78, Sam Houston 68
- Model spreadAlabama −10 total 145.5
- Margin22 projected 10.1
- Total170 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Sam Houston Bearkats or Alabama Crimson Tide: the bandwagon
Axle 20–80Market –
FinalPregame: ALA 80%Baseline: ALA 95.0% (+15.4)Big swing: 9.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SHSU | 29 | 45 | 74 |
| ALA | 40 | 56 | 96 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Sam Houston Bearkats at Alabama Crimson Tide win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for ALA over the last 5:00
Big swing9.4 ptstoward ALA at 4:07 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 5 points in the final half
BaselineALA 95.0%game average, +15.4 points from the pregame 79.6%
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Alabama Crimson Tide live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SHSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | SHSU25/65 | ALA36/75 |
| 3-pointers | SHSU15/33 | ALA10/31 |
| Free throws | SHSU9/16 | ALA14/19 |
| Rebounds | SHSU45 | ALA42 |
| Assists | SHSU17 | ALA17 |
| Turnovers | SHSU23 | ALA10 |
| Steals | SHSU7 | ALA17 |
| Blocks | SHSU6 | ALA10 |
| Points in the paint | SHSU18 | ALA48 |
| Fast-break points | SHSU11 | ALA41 |
| Fouls | SHSU16 | ALA16 |
| Largest lead | SHSU0 | ALA32 |
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Alabama Crimson Tide team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SHSU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SHSU74 | ALA96 |
| Average win probability | SHSU5% | ALA95% |
| Longest scoring run | SHSU+3 | ALA+6 |
| Time leading | SHSU0:00 | ALA35:27 |
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Alabama Crimson Tide odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET
Bearkats20%
Win chanceCrimson Tide80%
SpreadALA −10closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+391away / −391homeaway / home
Line movementALA win chance, 33 stored lines
+15 pts for ALA between Oct 29 and Nov 3
89%60%
Oct 29Nov 1Nov 3
Every stored line
| Stored | ALA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 2:23 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:35 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:51 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:12 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:31 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 80% | −3 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 83% | +18 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- ALA 1667 · SHSU 1546
- Home spread
- −10
- Stored
- Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET · 2026-11-04 02:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Sam Houston Bearkats 74, Alabama Crimson Tide 96. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
BearkatsCrimson Tide
Neutrals only–
BearkatsCrimson Tide
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Crimson Tide–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Sam Houston Bearkats vs Alabama Crimson Tide prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Crimson Tide a 10-point favorite at home, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Crimson Tide 1677 (11th of 361), Bearkats 1536 (116th). The Crimson Tide are 1-0; the Bearkats are 0-1. The Crimson Tide have won 3 of their last 5; the Bearkats 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Sam Houston Bearkats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Alabama Crimson Tide | L 74–96 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 83–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | L 73–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico State Aggies | W 69–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Liberty Flames | L 72–79 | – | – | matchup |
Alabama Crimson Tide
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 96–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | L 77–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | W 90–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hofstra Pride | W 90–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ole Miss Rebels | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Sam Houston Bearkats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Alabama Crimson Tide: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bearkats0-1 10th · L1
- Bearkats rating1536 116th of 361, 1 games
- Crimson Tide1-0 1st · W1
- Crimson Tide rating1677 11th of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 10th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $SHSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sam Houston Bearkats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 1st · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ALAMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ALAMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ALAMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Alabama Crimson Tide bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sam Houston Bearkats at Alabama Crimson Tide
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