NFL Week 9 odds: Bandwagon's model vs Kalshi and Polymarket (Nov 5–9, 2026)
Bandwagon's model has a line on 15 of 15 NFL Week 9 games. Its biggest favorite is Seahawks at 83%, against Cardinals; its closest game is Browns at Saints, 50%–50%. The largest gap with a market is Browns at Saints: the model gives Saints 50% and Polymarket 69% (19 points). Model as of Nov 9, 5:03 AM ET; prices as of Nov 9, 7:31 PM ET.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NFL Week 9 slate
15 games| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Model win chance | Model spread | Model total | Kalshi | Polymarket | Crowd | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguars at Ravens | Jaguars 60% | Jaguars −2.5 | 45.5 | Jaguars 78% | Jaguars 78% | – | Jaguars 33, Ravens 10 model's favorite won | |
| Bengals vs Falcons | Bengals 66% | Bengals −4.5 | 47 | Bengals 63% | Bengals 63% | – | Bengals 34, Falcons 17 model's favorite won | |
| Broncos at Panthers | Broncos 72% | Broncos −6.5 | 46.5 | Broncos 61% | Broncos 61% | – | Broncos 26, Panthers 21 model's favorite won | |
| Browns at Saints | Saints 50% | Saints −0.5 | 45 | Saints 67% | Saints 69% | – | Browns 22, Saints 23 no favorite | |
| Cowboys at Colts | Cowboys 51% | even | 48.5 | Cowboys 66% | Cowboys 66% | 1 pick | Cowboys 27, Colts 23 model's favorite won | |
| Giants at Eagles | Eagles 51% | Eagles −0.5 | 44.5 | Eagles 42% | Eagles 42% | – | Giants 19, Eagles 11 no favorite | |
| Jets at Chiefs | Chiefs 80% | Chiefs −10.5 | 44 | Chiefs 81% | Chiefs 81% | – | Jets 12, Chiefs 35 model's favorite won | |
| Lions at Dolphins | Lions 72% | Lions −6.5 | 47 | Lions 74% | Lions 74% | – | Lions 19, Dolphins 9 model's favorite won | |
| Rams at Commanders | Rams 66% | Rams −4 | 46 | Rams 67% | Rams 67% | – | Rams 20, Commanders 13 model's favorite won | |
| Texans at Chargers | Texans 61% | Texans −3 | 44 | Texans 68% | Texans 67% | – | Texans 44, Chargers 22 model's favorite won | |
| Cardinals at Seahawks | Seahawks 83% | Seahawks −11.5 | 46.5 | Seahawks 79% | Seahawks 79% | – | Cardinals 3, Seahawks 17 model's favorite won | |
| Packers at Patriots | Patriots 63% | Patriots −4.5 | 43.5 | Patriots 61% | Patriots 61% | – | Packers 45, Patriots 27 model's favorite lost | |
| Raiders at 49ers | 49ers 80% | 49ers −10.5 | 49 | 49ers 80% | 49ers 80% | – | Raiders 17, 49ers 38 model's favorite won | |
| Buccaneers at Bears | Bears 71% | Bears −7 | 44.5 | Bears 72% | Bears 72% | – | Buccaneers 24, Bears 27 model's favorite won | |
| Bills at Vikings | Bills 52% | even | 45.5 | Bills 64% | Bills 64% | – | Bills 23, Vikings 6 model's favorite won |
Kalshi and Polymarket show their implied chance for the side the model favors (the home side where the model has no favorite), from the newest price in the last day; for a game already played, the last price before kickoff. The crowd column is Bandwagon members' picks.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
The model's record this week
The model's favorite won 12 of 13 finished NFL games that had a favorite (92%). Each line is the one stored before kickoff. Not counted: 2 finished games with no favorite. The model's record