Major League Soccer odds this week
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's Major League Soccer predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Major League Soccer odds Saturday, November 7
15 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC at Red Bull New York | Red Bull New York 49%draw 26% | Red Bull New York −0.5 | 3 | +298 / +286 / +104 | no move | Matchup | |
| Charlotte FC at Inter Miami CF | Inter Miami CF 54%draw 25% | Inter Miami CF −1 | 3.5 | +363 / +308 / −117 | no move | Matchup | |
| Columbus Crew at Chicago Fire FC | Chicago Fire FC 48%draw 26% | Chicago Fire FC −0.5 | 3.5 | +289 / +283 / +108 | no move | Matchup | |
| Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati | Nashville SC 42%draw 27% | Nashville SC −0.5 | 3 | +140 / +267 / +221 | no move | Matchup | |
| New England Revolution at Orlando City SC | Orlando City SC 45%draw 27% | Orlando City SC −0.5 | 4 | +251 / +273 / +124 | no move | Matchup | |
| New York City FC at D.C. United | New York City FC 40%draw 27% | PK | 3 | +151 / +265 / +206 | no move | Matchup | |
| Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union | Philadelphia Union 61%draw 22% | Philadelphia Union −1 | 3.5 | +479 / +353 / −154 | no move | Matchup | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps at CF Montréal | Vancouver Whitecaps 54%draw 25% | Vancouver Whitecaps −1 | 3 | −116 / +307 / +360 | no move | Matchup | |
| Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas | FC Dallas 56%draw 24% | FC Dallas −1 | 3 | +399 / +322 / −129 | no move | Matchup | |
| Sporting Kansas City at San Diego FC | San Diego FC 62%draw 22% | San Diego FC −1 | 3.5 | +507 / +365 / −163 | no move | Matchup | |
| LAFC at Seattle Sounders FC | Seattle Sounders FC 42%draw 27% | PK | 3 | +229 / +268 / +136 | no move | Matchup | |
| LA Galaxy at Real Salt Lake | Real Salt Lake 45%draw 27% | Real Salt Lake −0.5 | 3.5 | +258 / +275 / +120 | no move | Matchup | |
| Portland Timbers at Austin FC | Austin FC 39%draw 28% | PK | 3.5 | +195 / +263 / +159 | no move | Matchup | |
| San Jose Earthquakes at Minnesota United FC | Minnesota United FC 47%draw 26% | Minnesota United FC −0.5 | 3 | +276 / +280 / +113 | no move | Matchup | |
| St. Louis CITY SC at Houston Dynamo FC | Houston Dynamo FC 44%draw 27% | Houston Dynamo FC −0.5 | 3 | +248 / +272 / +125 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 15 of 15
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 15 of 15
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 15
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 15
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 15 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 15
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 15
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 10:03 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Major League Soccer team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 1645 | 33 |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 1604 | 33 |
| 3 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 1601 | 33 |
| 4 | Philadelphia Union | 1567 | 33 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire FC | 1543 | 33 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 1537 | 33 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 1537 | 33 |
| 8 | Columbus Crew | 1527 | 33 |
| 9 | LAFC | 1516 | 33 |
| 10 | St. Louis CITY SC | 1511 | 33 |
| 11 | New England Revolution | 1506 | 33 |
| 12 | FC Cincinnati | 1505 | 33 |
Top 12 of 30; every team's rating is on its page.
Major League Soccer model record
Over 2078 Major League Soccer games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 47% of the time, Brier score 0.2395, mean spread error 1.301 points, mean total error 1.39. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for Major League Soccer games this week: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.