Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSan Diego FC 62%
- Projected scoreSan Diego FC 2.3, Sporting Kansas City 1.2
- Model spreadSan Diego FC −1 total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Sporting Kansas City or San Diego FC: the bandwagon
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Axle 16–62Market 17–66
Sporting Kansas City at San Diego FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SKC | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SKC– | SD– |
| Average win probability | SKC– | SD– |
| Longest scoring run | SKC– | SD– |
| Time leading | SKC– | SD– |
Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SD win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:06 PM ET | 62% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 61% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 60% | — |
- Ratings
- SD 1472 · SKC 1332
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices San Diego FC at 66%, Polymarket at 66%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 62%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SKC | Draw | SD | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 17% | 17% | 66% | ||
| Polymarket | 17% | 17% | 66% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 16% | 22% | 62% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Sporting Kansas City vs San Diego FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the San Diego FC a 1-point favorite at home, with a 62% chance to win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: San Diego FC 1472 (21st of 30), Sporting Kansas City 1332 (30th). The San Diego FC are 9-13-11; the Sporting Kansas City are 6-22-5. The San Diego FC have won 1 of their last 5; the Sporting Kansas City 0 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the San Diego FC won 2, the Sporting Kansas City 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Sporting Kansas City
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs FC Dallas | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota United FC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Austin FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Salt Lake | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville SC | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup |
San Diego FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at St. Louis CITY SC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Whitecaps | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Sounders FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LA Galaxy | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Dynamo FC | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego FC at Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Diego FC at Sporting Kansas City | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sporting Kansas City at San Diego FC | 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Sporting Kansas City: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Diego FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Sporting Kansas City6-22-5 15th
- Sporting Kansas City rating1332 30th of 30, 33 games
- San Diego FC9-13-11 13th
- San Diego FC rating1472 21st of 30, 33 games
Sporting Kansas City 6-22-5
Major League Soccer · 15th
No stances yet today on $KANSASCITY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sporting Kansas City bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
San Diego FC 9-13-11
Major League Soccer · 13th
No stances yet today on $SANDIEGO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: San Diego FC 62% to win, draw 22%. Projected score San Diego FC 2.3, Sporting Kansas City 1.2; spread San Diego FC −1, total 3.5. Kalshi 66%, Polymarket 66% for San Diego FC. Sporting Kansas City at San Diego FC, Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET.