MLS opener at Sporting Kansas City has no crowd read yet, with zero picks in. The model puts Sporting Kansas City at 25 percent, so the numbers lean toward FC Dallas for now.
MLS · · Legends Field · every Major League Soccer line
FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreFC Dallas 1, Sporting Kansas City 1 a draw
- Pregame Projected winnerFC Dallas 50%
- Pregame Projected scoreFC Dallas 1.8, Sporting Kansas City 1.3
- Model spreadFC Dallas −0.5 total 3
- Margin0 projected 0.5
- Total2 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
FC Dallas or Sporting Kansas City: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 50–25Market –
FinalPregame: SKC 37%Baseline: SKC 34.8% (−2.7)Big swing: 27.1 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SKC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
DAL 45.4%SKC 54.6%
FC Dallas at Sporting Kansas City win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SKC+3.5 points for SKC over the last 10:00
Big swing27.1 ptstoward SKC at 45:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineSKC 34.8%game average, −2.7 points from the pregame 37.5%
FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | DAL | SKC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | DAL45.4% | SKC54.6% |
| Shots | DAL10 | SKC8 |
| Shots on target | DAL2 | SKC4 |
| Corners | DAL7 | SKC3 |
| Passes completed | DAL347/416 | SKC450/509 |
| Saves | DAL3 | SKC1 |
| Fouls | DAL17 | SKC17 |
| Offsides | DAL1 | SKC0 |
| Yellow cards | DAL4 | SKC3 |
| Red cards | DAL0 | SKC0 |
FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | DAL | SKC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | DAL1 | SKC1 |
| Average win probability | DAL65% | SKC35% |
| Longest scoring run | DAL+1 | SKC+1 |
| Time leading | DAL24:00 | SKC0:00 |
FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET
FC Dallas50%
Win chanceSporting Kansas City25%
SpreadDAL −0.5closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+102away / +287draw / +307homeaway / draw / home
Line movementSKC win chance, 9 stored lines
−29 pts for SKC between Oct 29 and Oct 31
59%16%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | SKC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 25% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 22% | −32 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 54% | — |
- Ratings
- SKC 1329 · DAL 1540
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET · 2026-10-31 20:12 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: FC Dallas 1, Sporting Kansas City 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
FC DallasSporting Kansas City
Neutrals only–
FC DallasSporting Kansas City
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Sporting Kansas City–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
FC Dallas vs Sporting Kansas City prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the FC Dallas a 0.5-point favorite, with a 50% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Sporting Kansas City 1332 (30th of 30), FC Dallas 1537 (7th). The Sporting Kansas City are 6-22-5; the FC Dallas are 15-8-10. The Sporting Kansas City have won 0 of their last 5; the FC Dallas 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Sporting Kansas City won 2, the FC Dallas 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
FC Dallas
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sporting Kansas City | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Crew | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Jose Earthquakes | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Dynamo FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Sounders FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Sporting Kansas City
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs FC Dallas | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota United FC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Austin FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Salt Lake | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville SC | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City at FC Dallas | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Dallas at Sporting Kansas City | 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sporting Kansas City at FC Dallas | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Sporting Kansas City at FC Dallas | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Dallas at Sporting Kansas City | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Dallas at Sporting Kansas City | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
FC Dallas: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sporting Kansas City: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- FC Dallas15-8-10 2nd
- FC Dallas rating1537 7th of 30, 33 games
- Sporting Kansas City6-22-5 15th
- Sporting Kansas City rating1332 30th of 30, 33 games
FC Dallas 15-8-10
Major League Soccer · 2nd
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DALLAS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DALLAS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $DALLAS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $DALLAS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Dallas bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Sporting Kansas City 6-22-5
Major League Soccer · 15th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $KANSASCITY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $KANSASCITY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $KANSASCITY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $KANSASCITY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sporting Kansas City bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on FC Dallas at Sporting Kansas City
Sign in to post a take on $DALLASKANSASCITY261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: FC Dallas 1, Sporting Kansas City 1. Bandwagon's model had the FC Dallas at 50% and projected FC Dallas 1.8, Sporting Kansas City 1.3; spread FC Dallas −0.5, total 3.