St. Louis CITY SC vs Houston Dynamo FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerHouston Dynamo FC 44%
- Projected scoreHouston Dynamo FC 1.7, St. Louis CITY SC 1.3
- Model spreadHouston Dynamo FC −0.5 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
St. Louis CITY SC or Houston Dynamo FC: the bandwagon
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Axle 29–44Market 35–39
St. Louis CITY SC at Houston Dynamo FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
St. Louis CITY SC vs Houston Dynamo FC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
St. Louis CITY SC vs Houston Dynamo FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | STL | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STL– | HOU– |
| Average win probability | STL– | HOU– |
| Longest scoring run | STL– | HOU– |
| Time leading | STL– | HOU– |
St. Louis CITY SC vs Houston Dynamo FC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | HOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:00 AM ET | 44% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:06 PM ET | 46% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 44% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- HOU 1494 · STL 1511
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
St. Louis CITY SC vs Houston Dynamo FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Houston Dynamo FC at 39%, Polymarket at 39%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 44%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | STL | Draw | HOU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34% | 26% | 39% | ||
| Polymarket | 35% | 27% | 39% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 29% | 27% | 44% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
St. Louis CITY SC vs Houston Dynamo FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Houston Dynamo FC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 44% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Houston Dynamo FC 1494 (14th of 30), St. Louis CITY SC 1511 (10th). The Houston Dynamo FC are 14-10-9; the St. Louis CITY SC are 14-10-9. The Houston Dynamo FC have won 1 of their last 5; the St. Louis CITY SC 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Houston Dynamo FC won 2, the St. Louis CITY SC 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
St. Louis CITY SC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs San Diego FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Timbers | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Salt Lake | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota United FC | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Whitecaps | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Houston Dynamo FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Portland Timbers | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Sounders FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota United FC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Dallas | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego FC | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo FC at St. Louis CITY SC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Dynamo FC at St. Louis CITY SC | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| St. Louis CITY SC at Houston Dynamo FC | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Dynamo FC at St. Louis CITY SC | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| St. Louis CITY SC at Houston Dynamo FC | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| St. Louis CITY SC at Houston Dynamo FC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
St. Louis CITY SC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Houston Dynamo FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- St. Louis CITY SC14-10-9 4th
- St. Louis CITY SC rating1511 10th of 30, 33 games
- Houston Dynamo FC14-10-9 5th
- Houston Dynamo FC rating1494 14th of 30, 33 games
St. Louis CITY SC 14-10-9
Major League Soccer · 4th
No stances yet today on $STLOUIS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the St. Louis CITY SC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Houston Dynamo FC 14-10-9
Major League Soccer · 5th
No stances yet today on $HOUSTON: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Dynamo FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Houston Dynamo FC 44% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Houston Dynamo FC 1.7, St. Louis CITY SC 1.3; spread Houston Dynamo FC −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 39%, Polymarket 39% for Houston Dynamo FC. St. Louis CITY SC at Houston Dynamo FC, Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET.