LAFC vs Seattle Sounders FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSeattle Sounders FC 42%
- Projected scoreSeattle Sounders FC 1.6, LAFC 1.4
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
LAFC or Seattle Sounders FC: the bandwagon
Axle 30–42Market 25–51
LAFC at Seattle Sounders FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
LAFC vs Seattle Sounders FC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
LAFC vs Seattle Sounders FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LAFC | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LAFC– | SEA– |
| Average win probability | LAFC– | SEA– |
| Longest scoring run | LAFC– | SEA– |
| Time leading | LAFC– | SEA– |
LAFC vs Seattle Sounders FC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SEA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 42% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:42 PM ET | 40% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 41% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 39% | — |
- Ratings
- SEA 1482 · LAFC 1516
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
LAFC vs Seattle Sounders FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Seattle Sounders FC at 51%, Polymarket at 51%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 42%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LAFC | Draw | SEA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 26% | 24% | 51% | ||
| Polymarket | 25% | 24% | 51% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 30% | 27% | 42% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
LAFC vs Seattle Sounders FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Seattle Sounders FC the favorite, with a 42% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Seattle Sounders FC 1482 (18th of 30), LAFC 1516 (9th). The Seattle Sounders FC are 11-12-10; the LAFC are 12-10-11. The Seattle Sounders FC have won 0 of their last 5; the LAFC 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Seattle Sounders FC won 2, the LAFC 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
LAFC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota United FC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Galaxy | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York City FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Austin FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Whitecaps | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Seattle Sounders FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Vancouver Whitecaps | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Dynamo FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs CF Montréal | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Dallas | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders FC at LAFC | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Sounders FC at LAFC | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| LAFC at Seattle Sounders FC | 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Sounders FC at LAFC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| LAFC at Seattle Sounders FC | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Sounders FC at LAFC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
LAFC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Seattle Sounders FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- LAFC12-10-11 6th
- LAFC rating1516 9th of 30, 33 games
- Seattle Sounders FC11-12-10 10th
- Seattle Sounders FC rating1482 18th of 30, 33 games
LAFC 12-10-11
Major League Soccer · 6th
No stances yet today on $LAFC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the LAFC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Seattle Sounders FC 11-12-10
Major League Soccer · 10th
No stances yet today on $SEATTLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Seattle Sounders FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Seattle Sounders FC 42% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Seattle Sounders FC 1.6, LAFC 1.4; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 51%, Polymarket 51% for Seattle Sounders FC. LAFC at Seattle Sounders FC, Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET.