Soccer, LAFC against Minnesota United, five minutes in and still 0-0. The model gives LAFC 53 percent at this stage, a small edge that comes from the home side and nothing that has happened on the pitch yet.
MLS · · BMO Stadium · every Major League Soccer line
Minnesota United FC vs LAFC: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreMinnesota United FC 3, LAFC 1 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerLAFC 53%
- Pregame Projected scoreLAFC 2.0, Minnesota United FC 1.5
- Model spreadLAFC −0.5 total 3.5
- Margin2 projected 0.5
- Total4 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota United FC or LAFC: the bandwagon
Axle 22–53Market –
FinalPregame: LAFC 66%Baseline: LAFC 25.0% (−40.6)Big swing: 30.4 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| LAFC | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
MIN 50.2%LAFC 49.8%
Minnesota United FC at LAFC win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.1 points for LAFC over the last 10:00
Big swing30.4 ptstoward MIN at 29:00 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineLAFC 25.0%game average, −40.6 points from the pregame 65.6%
Minnesota United FC vs LAFC live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MIN | LAFC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | MIN50.2% | LAFC49.8% |
| Shots | MIN6 | LAFC22 |
| Shots on target | MIN3 | LAFC7 |
| Corners | MIN1 | LAFC8 |
| Passes completed | MIN420/506 | LAFC416/481 |
| Saves | MIN6 | LAFC0 |
| Fouls | MIN17 | LAFC15 |
| Offsides | MIN1 | LAFC1 |
| Yellow cards | MIN4 | LAFC3 |
| Red cards | MIN0 | LAFC0 |
Minnesota United FC vs LAFC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MIN | LAFC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MIN3 | LAFC1 |
| Average win probability | MIN75% | LAFC25% |
| Longest scoring run | MIN+3 | LAFC+0 |
| Time leading | MIN61:00 | LAFC0:00 |
Minnesota United FC vs LAFC odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET
Minnesota United FC22%
Win chanceLAFC53%
SpreadLAFC −0.5closing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+353away / +305draw / −114homeaway / draw / home
Line movementLAFC win chance, 14 stored lines
+1 pts for LAFC between Oct 29 and Nov 1
59%46%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | LAFC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 53% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 52% | — |
- Ratings
- LAFC 1536 · MIN 1475
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET · 2026-11-02 02:23 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Minnesota United FC 3, LAFC 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Minnesota United FCLAFC
Neutrals only–
Minnesota United FCLAFC
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, LAFC–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Minnesota United FC vs LAFC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the LAFC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 53% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: LAFC 1516 (9th of 30), Minnesota United FC 1495 (13th). The LAFC are 12-10-11; the Minnesota United FC are 10-12-11. The LAFC have won 1 of their last 5; the Minnesota United FC 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the LAFC won 5, the Minnesota United FC 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota United FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at LAFC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sporting Kansas City | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Dynamo FC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. Louis CITY SC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Rapids | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
LAFC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota United FC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LA Galaxy | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York City FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Austin FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Whitecaps | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAFC at Minnesota United FC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| LAFC at Minnesota United FC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota United FC at LAFC | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota United FC at LAFC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| LAFC at Minnesota United FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota United FC at LAFC | 1–5 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Minnesota United FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
LAFC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Minnesota United FC10-12-11 12th
- Minnesota United FC rating1495 13th of 30, 33 games
- LAFC12-10-11 6th
- LAFC rating1516 9th of 30, 33 games
Minnesota United FC 10-12-11
Major League Soccer · 12th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MINNESOTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MINNESOTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MINNESOTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MINNESOTA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota United FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
LAFC 12-10-11
Major League Soccer · 6th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LAFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LAFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LAFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LAFC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the LAFC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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