Vancouver Whitecaps beat Seattle Sounders FC 5-1 to finish the MLS match with a four-goal margin. No crowd picks were recorded, so there is no crowd number to weigh against the model, which had Vancouver at 58 percent.
MLS · · BC Place · every Major League Soccer line
Seattle Sounders FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreSeattle Sounders FC 1, Vancouver Whitecaps 5 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerVancouver Whitecaps 58%
- Pregame Projected scoreVancouver Whitecaps 2.0, Seattle Sounders FC 1.0
- Model spreadVancouver Whitecaps −1 total 3
- Margin4 projected 1
- Total6 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Seattle Sounders FC or Vancouver Whitecaps: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 19–58Market –
FinalPregame: VAN 69%Baseline: VAN 96.6% (+27.3)Big swing: 17.1 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| VAN | 3 | 2 | 5 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
SEA 51.5%VAN 48.5%
Seattle Sounders FC at Vancouver Whitecaps win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for VAN over the last 10:00
Big swing17.1 ptstoward VAN at 2:00 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineVAN 96.6%game average, +27.3 points from the pregame 69.3%
Seattle Sounders FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SEA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | SEA51.5% | VAN48.5% |
| Shots | SEA13 | VAN18 |
| Shots on target | SEA5 | VAN9 |
| Corners | SEA6 | VAN2 |
| Passes completed | SEA515/578 | VAN484/550 |
| Saves | SEA4 | VAN4 |
| Fouls | SEA17 | VAN11 |
| Offsides | SEA3 | VAN3 |
| Yellow cards | SEA1 | VAN1 |
| Red cards | SEA0 | VAN0 |
Seattle Sounders FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SEA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SEA1 | VAN5 |
| Average win probability | SEA3% | VAN97% |
| Longest scoring run | SEA+1 | VAN+4 |
| Time leading | SEA0:00 | VAN88:00 |
Seattle Sounders FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET
Seattle Sounders FC19%
Win chanceVancouver Whitecaps58%
SpreadVAN −1closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+424away / +329draw / −136homeaway / draw / home
Line movementVAN win chance, 12 stored lines
No move
63%52%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | VAN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 58% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 57% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 58% | — |
- Ratings
- VAN 1591 · SEA 1491
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Seattle Sounders FC 1, Vancouver Whitecaps 5. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Seattle Sounders FCVancouver Whitecaps
Neutrals only–
Seattle Sounders FCVancouver Whitecaps
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Vancouver Whitecaps–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Seattle Sounders FC vs Vancouver Whitecaps prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Vancouver Whitecaps a 1-point favorite at home, with a 58% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Vancouver Whitecaps 1601 (3rd of 30), Seattle Sounders FC 1482 (18th). The Vancouver Whitecaps are 18-8-7; the Seattle Sounders FC are 11-12-10. The Vancouver Whitecaps have won 3 of their last 5; the Seattle Sounders FC 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Vancouver Whitecaps won 3, the Seattle Sounders FC 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Seattle Sounders FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Vancouver Whitecaps | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Dynamo FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs CF Montréal | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Dallas | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Vancouver Whitecaps
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Seattle Sounders FC | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego FC | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Rapids | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Austin FC | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis CITY SC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Whitecaps at Seattle Sounders FC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps at Seattle Sounders FC | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Sounders FC at Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Sounders FC at Vancouver Whitecaps | 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps at Seattle Sounders FC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps at Seattle Sounders FC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Seattle Sounders FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Vancouver Whitecaps: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Seattle Sounders FC11-12-10 10th
- Seattle Sounders FC rating1482 18th of 30, 33 games
- Vancouver Whitecaps18-8-7 1st
- Vancouver Whitecaps rating1601 3rd of 30, 33 games
Seattle Sounders FC 11-12-10
Major League Soccer · 10th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SEATTLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SEATTLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SEATTLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SEATTLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Seattle Sounders FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Vancouver Whitecaps 18-8-7
Major League Soccer · 1st
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $VANCOUVER
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $VANCOUVER
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $VANCOUVER
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $VANCOUVER: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vancouver Whitecaps bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Seattle Sounders FC at Vancouver Whitecaps
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Final: Seattle Sounders FC 1, Vancouver Whitecaps 5. Bandwagon's model had the Vancouver Whitecaps at 58% and projected Vancouver Whitecaps 2.0, Seattle Sounders FC 1.0; spread Vancouver Whitecaps −1, total 3.