Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerFC Dallas 56%
- Projected scoreFC Dallas 1.9, Colorado Rapids 1.1
- Model spreadFC Dallas −1 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Colorado Rapids or FC Dallas: the bandwagon
Axle 20–56Market 29–46
Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | COL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | COL– | DAL– |
| Average win probability | COL– | DAL– |
| Longest scoring run | COL– | DAL– |
| Time leading | COL– | DAL– |
Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 56% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 54% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 55% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 54% | — |
- Ratings
- DAL 1537 · COL 1450
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices FC Dallas at 47%, Polymarket at 46% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 56%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | COL | Draw | DAL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 28% | 24% | 47% | ||
| Polymarket | 30% | 25% | 46% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 24% | 56% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Colorado Rapids vs FC Dallas prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the FC Dallas a 1-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win and a 24% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: FC Dallas 1537 (7th of 30), Colorado Rapids 1450 (23rd). The FC Dallas are 15-8-10; the Colorado Rapids are 12-14-7. The FC Dallas have won 2 of their last 5; the Colorado Rapids 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the FC Dallas won 2, the Colorado Rapids 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Colorado Rapids
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chicago Fire FC | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Earthquakes | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Whitecaps | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Portland Timbers | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota United FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
FC Dallas
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sporting Kansas City | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Crew | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Jose Earthquakes | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Dynamo FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Sounders FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas at Colorado Rapids | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Dallas at Colorado Rapids | 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Dallas at Colorado Rapids | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Colorado Rapids: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
FC Dallas: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Colorado Rapids12-14-7 9th
- Colorado Rapids rating1450 23rd of 30, 33 games
- FC Dallas15-8-10 2nd
- FC Dallas rating1537 7th of 30, 33 games
Colorado Rapids 12-14-7
Major League Soccer · 9th
No stances yet today on $COLORADO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Colorado Rapids bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
FC Dallas 15-8-10
Major League Soccer · 2nd
No stances yet today on $DALLAS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Dallas bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas
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Model: FC Dallas 56% to win, draw 24%. Projected score FC Dallas 1.9, Colorado Rapids 1.1; spread FC Dallas −1, total 3. Kalshi 47%, Polymarket 46% for FC Dallas. Colorado Rapids at FC Dallas, Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET.