Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerNashville SC 42%
- Projected scoreNashville SC 1.7, FC Cincinnati 1.3
- Model spreadNashville SC −0.5 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Nashville SC or FC Cincinnati: the bandwagon
Axle 42–31Market 39–37
Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NSH | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NSH– | CIN– |
| Average win probability | NSH– | CIN– |
| Longest scoring run | NSH– | CIN– |
| Time leading | NSH– | CIN– |
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CIN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:46 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 31% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 32% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 31% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 30% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 27% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 27% | — |
- Ratings
- CIN 1505 · NSH 1645
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Nashville SC at 39%, Polymarket at 39%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 42%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NSH | Draw | CIN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 39% | 25% | 37% | ||
| Polymarket | 39% | 24% | 37% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 42% | 27% | 31% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nashville SC a 0.5-point favorite, with a 42% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: FC Cincinnati 1505 (12th of 30), Nashville SC 1645 (1st). The FC Cincinnati are 12-11-10; the Nashville SC are 22-3-8. The FC Cincinnati have won 3 of their last 5; the Nashville SC 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the FC Cincinnati won 3, the Nashville SC 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Nashville SC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Red Bull New York | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Union | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at CF Montréal | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Earthquakes | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sporting Kansas City | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup |
FC Cincinnati
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia Union | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Inter Miami CF | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at D.C. United | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs D.C. United | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Crew | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati at Nashville SC | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cincinnati at Nashville SC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cincinnati at Nashville SC | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati | 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Nashville SC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
FC Cincinnati: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Nashville SC22-3-8 1st
- Nashville SC rating1645 1st of 30, 33 games
- FC Cincinnati12-11-10 7th
- FC Cincinnati rating1505 12th of 30, 33 games
Nashville SC 22-3-8
Major League Soccer · 1st
No stances yet today on $NASHVILLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nashville SC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
FC Cincinnati 12-11-10
Major League Soccer · 7th
No stances yet today on $CINCINNATI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Cincinnati bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati
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Model: Nashville SC 42% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Nashville SC 1.7, FC Cincinnati 1.3; spread Nashville SC −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 39%, Polymarket 39% for Nashville SC. Nashville SC at FC Cincinnati, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.