Nashville SC beat Red Bull New York 3-2 to finish the match, and our model had the home side at 70 percent before kickoff. No crowd picks were recorded, so there is no fan split to set against it.
MLS · · Nissan Stadium · every Major League Soccer line
Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreRed Bull New York 2, Nashville SC 3 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerNashville SC 70%
- Pregame Projected scoreNashville SC 2.3, Red Bull New York 0.8
- Model spreadNashville SC −1.5 total 3
- Margin1 projected 1.5
- Total5 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Red Bull New York or Nashville SC: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 12–70Market –
FinalPregame: NSH 79%Baseline: NSH 47.0% (−31.7)Big swing: 54.2 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBNY | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| NSH | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
RBNY 38.7%NSH 61.3%
Red Bull New York at Nashville SC win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to NSH+93.4 points for NSH over the last 10:00
Big swing54.2 ptstoward NSH at 82:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineNSH 47.0%game average, −31.7 points from the pregame 78.7%
Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | RBNY | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | RBNY38.7% | NSH61.3% |
| Shots | RBNY14 | NSH21 |
| Shots on target | RBNY4 | NSH7 |
| Corners | RBNY3 | NSH12 |
| Passes completed | RBNY243/323 | NSH430/504 |
| Saves | RBNY6 | NSH2 |
| Fouls | RBNY13 | NSH5 |
| Offsides | RBNY0 | NSH3 |
| Yellow cards | RBNY2 | NSH0 |
| Red cards | RBNY0 | NSH0 |
Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | RBNY | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| Score | RBNY2 | NSH3 |
| Average win probability | RBNY53% | NSH47% |
| Longest scoring run | RBNY+2 | NSH+3 |
| Time leading | RBNY47:00 | NSH0:00 |
Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET
Red Bull New York12%
Win chanceNashville SC70%
SpreadNSH −1.5closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+719away / +454draw / −230homeaway / draw / home
Line movementNSH win chance, 13 stored lines
−1 pts for NSH between Oct 29 and Nov 1
76%64%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | NSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 70% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 69% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 70% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 71% | — |
- Ratings
- NSH 1642 · RBNY 1428
- Home spread
- −1.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET · 2026-11-01 23:41 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Red Bull New York 2, Nashville SC 3. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Red Bull New YorkNashville SC
Neutrals only–
Red Bull New YorkNashville SC
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Nashville SC–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Red Bull New York vs Nashville SC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nashville SC a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 70% chance to win and a 18% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Nashville SC 1645 (1st of 30), Red Bull New York 1425 (25th). The Nashville SC are 22-3-8; the Red Bull New York are 11-16-6. The Nashville SC have won 3 of their last 5; the Red Bull New York 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Nashville SC won 2, the Red Bull New York 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Red Bull New York
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Nashville SC | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Revolution | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Inter Miami CF | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto FC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at D.C. United | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Nashville SC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Red Bull New York | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Union | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at CF Montréal | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Earthquakes | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sporting Kansas City | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nashville SC at Red Bull New York | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Red Bull New York at Nashville SC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nashville SC at Red Bull New York | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nashville SC at Red Bull New York | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Red Bull New York at Nashville SC | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Red Bull New York at Nashville SC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Red Bull New York: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Nashville SC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Red Bull New York11-16-6 10th
- Red Bull New York rating1425 25th of 30, 33 games
- Nashville SC22-3-8 1st
- Nashville SC rating1645 1st of 30, 33 games
Red Bull New York 11-16-6
Major League Soccer · 10th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $REDBULLNY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $REDBULLNY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $REDBULLNY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $REDBULLNY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Red Bull New York bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Nashville SC 22-3-8
Major League Soccer · 1st
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NASHVILLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NASHVILLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NASHVILLE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $NASHVILLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nashville SC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Red Bull New York at Nashville SC
Sign in to post a take on $REDBULLNYNASHVILLE261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Red Bull New York 2, Nashville SC 3. Bandwagon's model had the Nashville SC at 70% and projected Nashville SC 2.3, Red Bull New York 0.8; spread Nashville SC −1.5, total 3.