In MLS, the model has FC Cincinnati at 37 percent with the score level 0-0 at kickoff. No crowd picks are in yet, so this reading is the model alone.
MLS · · TQL Stadium · every Major League Soccer line
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scorePhiladelphia Union 0, FC Cincinnati 1
- Pregame Projected winnereven
- Pregame Projected scoreFC Cincinnati 1.8, Philadelphia Union 1.8
- Model spreadeven total 3.5
- Margin1 projected 0
- Total1 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Philadelphia Union or FC Cincinnati: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 35–37Market –
FinalPregame: CIN 51%Baseline: CIN 60.5% (+9.6)Big swing: 40.1 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
PHI 49.1%CIN 50.9%
Philadelphia Union at FC Cincinnati win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to CIN+4.2 points for CIN over the last 10:00
Big swing40.1 ptstoward CIN at 71:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineCIN 60.5%game average, +9.6 points from the pregame 50.9%
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | PHI | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | PHI49.1% | CIN50.9% |
| Shots | PHI15 | CIN7 |
| Shots on target | PHI6 | CIN2 |
| Corners | PHI12 | CIN3 |
| Passes completed | PHI307/403 | CIN339/429 |
| Saves | PHI1 | CIN6 |
| Fouls | PHI4 | CIN11 |
| Offsides | PHI2 | CIN0 |
| Yellow cards | PHI0 | CIN0 |
| Red cards | PHI0 | CIN0 |
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | PHI | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PHI0 | CIN1 |
| Average win probability | PHI40% | CIN60% |
| Longest scoring run | PHI+0 | CIN+1 |
| Time leading | PHI0:00 | CIN19:00 |
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Philadelphia Union35%
Win chanceFC Cincinnati37%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+184away / +261draw / +170homeaway / draw / home
Line movementCIN win chance, 7 stored lines
−14 pts for CIN between Oct 29 and Oct 31
57%29%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | CIN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 37% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 34% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 34% | −17 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 51% | — |
- Ratings
- CIN 1495 · PHI 1577
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Philadelphia Union 0, FC Cincinnati 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Philadelphia UnionFC Cincinnati
Neutrals only–
Philadelphia UnionFC Cincinnati
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, FC Cincinnati–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 37% for the FC Cincinnati, 28% for a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: FC Cincinnati 1505 (12th of 30), Philadelphia Union 1567 (4th). The FC Cincinnati are 12-11-10; the Philadelphia Union are 13-12-8. The FC Cincinnati have won 3 of their last 5; the Philadelphia Union 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the FC Cincinnati won 3, the Philadelphia Union 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Philadelphia Union
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at FC Cincinnati | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville SC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Revolution | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Fire FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
FC Cincinnati
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia Union | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Inter Miami CF | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at D.C. United | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs D.C. United | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Columbus Crew | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cincinnati at Philadelphia Union | 0–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at FC Cincinnati | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cincinnati at Philadelphia Union | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cincinnati at Philadelphia Union | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at FC Cincinnati | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at FC Cincinnati | 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Philadelphia Union: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
FC Cincinnati: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Philadelphia Union13-12-8 6th
- Philadelphia Union rating1567 4th of 30, 33 games
- FC Cincinnati12-11-10 7th
- FC Cincinnati rating1505 12th of 30, 33 games
Philadelphia Union 13-12-8
Major League Soccer · 6th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PHILADELPHIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PHILADELPHIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PHILADELPHIA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PHILADELPHIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia Union bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
FC Cincinnati 12-11-10
Major League Soccer · 7th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CINCINNATI
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CINCINNATI
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CINCINNATI
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CINCINNATI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Cincinnati bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Philadelphia Union at FC Cincinnati
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Final: Philadelphia Union 0, FC Cincinnati 1. Bandwagon's model had it even and projected FC Cincinnati 1.8, Philadelphia Union 1.8; spread even, total 3.5.