Portland Timbers vs Austin FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerAustin FC 39%
- Projected scoreAustin FC 1.8, Portland Timbers 1.7
- Model spreadeven total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Portland Timbers or Austin FC: the bandwagon
Axle 34–39Market 57–21
Portland Timbers at Austin FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Portland Timbers vs Austin FC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Portland Timbers vs Austin FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | POR | ATX |
|---|---|---|
| Score | POR– | ATX– |
| Average win probability | POR– | ATX– |
| Longest scoring run | POR– | ATX– |
| Time leading | POR– | ATX– |
Portland Timbers vs Austin FC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ATX win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:00 AM ET | 39% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:06 PM ET | 40% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 41% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 39% | — |
- Ratings
- ATX 1410 · POR 1478
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Portland Timbers vs Austin FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Austin FC at 21%, Polymarket at 22% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 39%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | POR | Draw | ATX | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57% | 21% | 21% | ||
| Polymarket | 57% | 21% | 22% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 34% | 28% | 39% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Portland Timbers vs Austin FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Austin FC the favorite, with a 39% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Austin FC 1410 (26th of 30), Portland Timbers 1478 (19th). The Austin FC are 8-15-10; the Portland Timbers are 12-14-7. The Austin FC have won 1 of their last 5; the Portland Timbers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Austin FC won 2, the Portland Timbers 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Portland Timbers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Houston Dynamo FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis CITY SC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte FC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado Rapids | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LA Galaxy | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Austin FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at LA Galaxy | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Salt Lake | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sporting Kansas City | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Whitecaps | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LAFC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin FC at Portland Timbers | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Timbers at Austin FC | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Austin FC at Portland Timbers | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Austin FC at Portland Timbers | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Timbers at Austin FC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Timbers at Austin FC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Portland Timbers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Austin FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Portland Timbers12-14-7 8th
- Portland Timbers rating1478 19th of 30, 33 games
- Austin FC8-15-10 14th
- Austin FC rating1410 26th of 30, 33 games
Portland Timbers 12-14-7
Major League Soccer · 8th
No stances yet today on $PORTLAND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Portland Timbers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Austin FC 8-15-10
Major League Soccer · 14th
No stances yet today on $AUSTIN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Austin FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Portland Timbers at Austin FC
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Model: Austin FC 39% to win, draw 28%. Projected score Austin FC 1.8, Portland Timbers 1.7; spread even, total 3.5. Kalshi 21%, Polymarket 22% for Austin FC. Portland Timbers at Austin FC, Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET.