Soccer, LA Galaxy 4, Austin FC 1, final. The result is the whole story here, and the model's pre-game split of 51 percent for the home side is the only number on file, since no crowd picks came in.
MLS · · Dignity Health Sports Park · every Major League Soccer line
Austin FC vs LA Galaxy: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreAustin FC 1, LA Galaxy 4 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerLA Galaxy 51%
- Pregame Projected scoreLA Galaxy 2.0, Austin FC 1.5
- Model spreadLA Galaxy −0.5 total 3.5
- Margin3 projected 0.5
- Total5 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Austin FC or LA Galaxy: the bandwagon
Axle 23–51Market –
FinalPregame: LA 64%Baseline: LA 90.2% (+26.2)Big swing: 20.5 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATX | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| LA | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
ATX 43.7%LA 56.3%
Austin FC at LA Galaxy win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for LA over the last 10:00
Big swing20.5 ptstoward LA at 12:00 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineLA 90.2%game average, +26.2 points from the pregame 64.1%
Austin FC vs LA Galaxy live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ATX | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | ATX43.7% | LA56.3% |
| Shots | ATX12 | LA18 |
| Shots on target | ATX2 | LA10 |
| Corners | ATX5 | LA7 |
| Passes completed | ATX368/415 | LA504/554 |
| Saves | ATX6 | LA1 |
| Fouls | ATX8 | LA5 |
| Offsides | ATX3 | LA1 |
| Yellow cards | ATX1 | LA1 |
| Red cards | ATX1 | LA0 |
Austin FC vs LA Galaxy team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ATX | LA |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ATX1 | LA4 |
| Average win probability | ATX10% | LA90% |
| Longest scoring run | ATX+1 | LA+3 |
| Time leading | ATX0:00 | LA78:00 |
Austin FC vs LA Galaxy odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET
Austin FC23%
Win chanceLA Galaxy51%
SpreadLA −0.5closing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+329away / +294draw / −105homeaway / draw / home
Line movementLA win chance, 10 stored lines
−4 pts for LA between Oct 29 and Oct 31
60%44%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | LA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 51% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 49% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 55% | — |
- Ratings
- LA 1466 · ATX 1421
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET · 2026-10-31 21:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Austin FC 1, LA Galaxy 4. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Austin FCLA Galaxy
Neutrals only–
Austin FCLA Galaxy
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, LA Galaxy–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Austin FC vs LA Galaxy prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the LA Galaxy a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 51% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: LA Galaxy 1477 (20th of 30), Austin FC 1410 (26th). The LA Galaxy are 11-11-11; the Austin FC are 8-15-10. The LA Galaxy have won 2 of their last 5; the Austin FC 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the LA Galaxy won 2, the Austin FC 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Austin FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at LA Galaxy | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Salt Lake | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sporting Kansas City | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vancouver Whitecaps | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LAFC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
LA Galaxy
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Austin FC | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LAFC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Timbers | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis CITY SC | L 2–6 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
Injuries
Austin FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
LA Galaxy: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Austin FC8-15-10 14th
- Austin FC rating1410 26th of 30, 33 games
- LA Galaxy11-11-11 7th
- LA Galaxy rating1477 20th of 30, 33 games
Austin FC 8-15-10
Major League Soccer · 14th
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▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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No stances yet today on $AUSTIN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Austin FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
LA Galaxy 11-11-11
Major League Soccer · 7th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LAGALAXY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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No stances yet today on $LAGALAXY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the LA Galaxy bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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