New York City FC vs D.C. United prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerNew York City FC 40%
- Projected scoreNew York City FC 1.6, D.C. United 1.4
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New York City FC or D.C. United: the bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 40–33Market 42–33
New York City FC at D.C. United win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
New York City FC vs D.C. United live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
New York City FC vs D.C. United team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NYC | DC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NYC– | DC– |
| Average win probability | NYC– | DC– |
| Longest scoring run | NYC– | DC– |
| Time leading | NYC– | DC– |
New York City FC vs D.C. United model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | DC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 33% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 32% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 33% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 31% | — |
- Ratings
- DC 1363 · NYC 1488
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
New York City FC vs D.C. United odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices New York City FC at 42%, Polymarket at 43% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 40%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NYC | Draw | DC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 42% | 25% | 33% | ||
| Polymarket | 43% | 25% | 32% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 40% | 27% | 33% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New York City FC vs D.C. United prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the New York City FC the favorite, with a 40% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: D.C. United 1363 (28th of 30), New York City FC 1488 (17th). The D.C. United are 7-14-12; the New York City FC are 9-12-12. The D.C. United have won 0 of their last 5; the New York City FC 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the D.C. United won 3, the New York City FC 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New York City FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs CF Montréal | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta United FC | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando City SC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LAFC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Inter Miami CF | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
D.C. United
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Columbus Crew | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toronto FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Cincinnati | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cincinnati | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando City SC | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.C. United at New York City FC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| D.C. United at New York City FC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York City FC at D.C. United | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York City FC at D.C. United | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| D.C. United at New York City FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York City FC at D.C. United | 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New York City FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
D.C. United: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- New York City FC9-12-12 11th
- New York City FC rating1488 17th of 30, 33 games
- D.C. United7-14-12 14th
- D.C. United rating1363 28th of 30, 33 games
New York City FC 9-12-12
Major League Soccer · 11th
No stances yet today on $NYCFC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York City FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
D.C. United 7-14-12
Major League Soccer · 14th
No stances yet today on $DCUNITED: the share of the crowd ▲ on the D.C. United bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New York City FC at D.C. United
Sign in to post a take on $NYCFCDCUNITED261107: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: New York City FC 40% to win, draw 27%. Projected score New York City FC 1.6, D.C. United 1.4; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 42%, Polymarket 43% for New York City FC. New York City FC at D.C. United, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.