MLS tonight, and the model has New York City FC at 63 percent to win at home, though the score is 0-0 at 1' and no crowd picks are in yet. The crowd sample is zero, so there is nothing to compare it against.
MLS · · Yankee Stadium · every Major League Soccer line
CF Montréal vs New York City FC: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreCF Montréal 1, New York City FC 1 a draw
- Pregame Projected winnerNew York City FC 63%
- Pregame Projected scoreNew York City FC 2.0, CF Montréal 1.0
- Model spreadNew York City FC −1 total 3
- Margin0 projected 1
- Total2 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
CF Montréal or New York City FC: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 16–63Market –
FinalPregame: NYC 73%Baseline: NYC 82.7% (+9.5)Big swing: 48.5 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NYC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
MTL 47.2%NYC 52.8%
CF Montréal at New York City FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to MTL−45.5 points for NYC over the last 10:00
Big swing48.5 ptstoward MTL at 90:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineNYC 82.7%game average, +9.5 points from the pregame 73.2%
CF Montréal vs New York City FC live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MTL | NYC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | MTL47.2% | NYC52.8% |
| Shots | MTL10 | NYC11 |
| Shots on target | MTL2 | NYC4 |
| Corners | MTL4 | NYC3 |
| Passes completed | MTL320/400 | NYC388/457 |
| Saves | MTL2 | NYC1 |
| Fouls | MTL19 | NYC17 |
| Offsides | MTL0 | NYC1 |
| Yellow cards | MTL5 | NYC3 |
| Red cards | MTL0 | NYC0 |
CF Montréal vs New York City FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MTL | NYC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MTL1 | NYC1 |
| Average win probability | MTL17% | NYC83% |
| Longest scoring run | MTL+1 | NYC+1 |
| Time leading | MTL0:00 | NYC47:00 |
CF Montréal vs New York City FC odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET
CF Montréal16%
Win chanceNew York City FC63%
SpreadNYC −1closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+522away / +369draw / −167homeaway / draw / home
Line movementNYC win chance, 8 stored lines
+7 pts for NYC between Oct 29 and Oct 31
68%50%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | NYC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 63% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 62% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 56% | — |
- Ratings
- NYC 1493 · MTL 1349
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET · 2026-10-31 20:06 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: CF Montréal 1, New York City FC 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
CF MontréalNew York City FC
Neutrals only–
CF MontréalNew York City FC
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, New York City FC–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
CF Montréal vs New York City FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the New York City FC a 1-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win and a 21% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: New York City FC 1488 (17th of 30), CF Montréal 1354 (29th). The New York City FC are 9-12-12; the CF Montréal are 6-19-8. The New York City FC have won 1 of their last 5; the CF Montréal 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the New York City FC won 2, the CF Montréal 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
CF Montréal
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New York City FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte FC | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nashville SC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Sounders FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta United FC | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
New York City FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs CF Montréal | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta United FC | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando City SC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs LAFC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Inter Miami CF | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC at CF Montréal | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York City FC at CF Montréal | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| CF Montréal at New York City FC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| New York City FC at CF Montréal | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| CF Montréal at New York City FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| CF Montréal at New York City FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
CF Montréal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
New York City FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- CF Montréal6-19-8 15th
- CF Montréal rating1354 29th of 30, 33 games
- New York City FC9-12-12 11th
- New York City FC rating1488 17th of 30, 33 games
CF Montréal 6-19-8
Major League Soccer · 15th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $CFMONTREAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $CFMONTREAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $CFMONTREAL
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $CFMONTREAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the CF Montréal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
New York City FC 9-12-12
Major League Soccer · 11th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NYCFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NYCFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NYCFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $NYCFC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New York City FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on CF Montréal at New York City FC
Sign in to post a take on $CFMONTREALNYCFC261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: CF Montréal 1, New York City FC 1. Bandwagon's model had the New York City FC at 63% and projected New York City FC 2.0, CF Montréal 1.0; spread New York City FC −1, total 3.