Atlanta United FC vs Red Bull New York prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerRed Bull New York 49%
- Projected scoreRed Bull New York 1.8, Atlanta United FC 1.2
- Model spreadRed Bull New York −0.5 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Atlanta United FC or Red Bull New York: the bandwagon
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Axle 25–49Market 28–50
Atlanta United FC at Red Bull New York win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Atlanta United FC vs Red Bull New York live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Atlanta United FC vs Red Bull New York team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ATL | RBNY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ATL– | RBNY– |
| Average win probability | ATL– | RBNY– |
| Longest scoring run | ATL– | RBNY– |
| Time leading | ATL– | RBNY– |
Atlanta United FC vs Red Bull New York model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | RBNY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:46 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 49% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 51% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- RBNY 1425 · ATL 1402
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Atlanta United FC vs Red Bull New York odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Red Bull New York at 49%, Polymarket at 50% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 49%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ATL | Draw | RBNY | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 23% | 49% | ||
| Polymarket | 28% | 22% | 50% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 25% | 26% | 49% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Atlanta United FC vs Red Bull New York prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Red Bull New York a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 49% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Red Bull New York 1425 (25th of 30), Atlanta United FC 1402 (27th). The Red Bull New York are 11-16-6; the Atlanta United FC are 9-18-6. The Red Bull New York have won 1 of their last 5; the Atlanta United FC 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Red Bull New York won 2, the Atlanta United FC 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Atlanta United FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toronto FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York City FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Fire FC | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Inter Miami CF | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at CF Montréal | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Red Bull New York
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Nashville SC | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Revolution | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Inter Miami CF | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto FC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at D.C. United | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Bull New York at Atlanta United FC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta United FC at Red Bull New York | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Red Bull New York at Atlanta United FC | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Red Bull New York at Atlanta United FC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta United FC at Red Bull New York | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta United FC at Red Bull New York | 0–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Atlanta United FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Red Bull New York: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Atlanta United FC9-18-6 13th
- Atlanta United FC rating1402 27th of 30, 33 games
- Red Bull New York11-16-6 10th
- Red Bull New York rating1425 25th of 30, 33 games
Atlanta United FC 9-18-6
Major League Soccer · 13th
No stances yet today on $ATLANTA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atlanta United FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Red Bull New York 11-16-6
Major League Soccer · 10th
No stances yet today on $REDBULLNY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Red Bull New York bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Red Bull New York 49% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Red Bull New York 1.8, Atlanta United FC 1.2; spread Red Bull New York −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 49%, Polymarket 50% for Red Bull New York. Atlanta United FC at Red Bull New York, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.