MLS: Atlanta United beat Toronto FC 3-1, a margin of 2 at home. The model had Atlanta at 39 percent before kickoff, and no crowd picks were recorded to set against it.
MLS · · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · every Major League Soccer line
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreToronto FC 1, Atlanta United FC 3 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerAtlanta United FC 39%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.5 each draw 28%
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Margin2 projected 0
- Total4 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Toronto FC or Atlanta United FC: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 34–39Market –
FinalPregame: ATL 53%Baseline: ATL 83.2% (+30.6)Big swing: 26.1 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ATL | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
TOR 51.7%ATL 48.3%
Toronto FC at Atlanta United FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for ATL over the last 10:00
Big swing26.1 ptstoward ATL at 23:00 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineATL 83.2%game average, +30.6 points from the pregame 52.6%
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | TOR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | TOR51.7% | ATL48.3% |
| Shots | TOR13 | ATL20 |
| Shots on target | TOR3 | ATL8 |
| Corners | TOR3 | ATL3 |
| Passes completed | TOR404/478 | ATL393/467 |
| Saves | TOR5 | ATL2 |
| Fouls | TOR10 | ATL14 |
| Offsides | TOR0 | ATL1 |
| Yellow cards | TOR2 | ATL0 |
| Red cards | TOR0 | ATL0 |
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | TOR | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR1 | ATL3 |
| Average win probability | TOR17% | ATL83% |
| Longest scoring run | TOR+1 | ATL+3 |
| Time leading | TOR0:00 | ATL67:00 |
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET
Toronto FC34%
Win chanceAtlanta United FC39%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+198away / +262draw / +158homeaway / draw / home
Line movementATL win chance, 12 stored lines
+4 pts for ATL between Oct 29 and Nov 1
44%30%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | ATL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 39% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 35% | — |
- Ratings
- ATL 1388 · TOR 1454
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Toronto FC 1, Atlanta United FC 3. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Toronto FCAtlanta United FC
Neutrals only–
Toronto FCAtlanta United FC
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Atlanta United FC–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Toronto FC vs Atlanta United FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Atlanta United FC the favorite, with a 39% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Atlanta United FC 1402 (27th of 30), Toronto FC 1440 (24th). The Atlanta United FC are 9-18-6; the Toronto FC are 9-12-12. The Atlanta United FC have won 2 of their last 5; the Toronto FC 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Atlanta United FC won 2, the Toronto FC 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Toronto FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atlanta United FC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs D.C. United | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Columbus Crew | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Red Bull New York | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando City SC | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup |
Atlanta United FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toronto FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York City FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Fire FC | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Inter Miami CF | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at CF Montréal | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC at Toronto FC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto FC at Atlanta United FC | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta United FC at Toronto FC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto FC at Atlanta United FC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta United FC at Toronto FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Atlanta United FC at Toronto FC | 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Toronto FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Atlanta United FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Toronto FC9-12-12 12th
- Toronto FC rating1440 24th of 30, 33 games
- Atlanta United FC9-18-6 13th
- Atlanta United FC rating1402 27th of 30, 33 games
Toronto FC 9-12-12
Major League Soccer · 12th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TORONTO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TORONTO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TORONTO
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $TORONTO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Atlanta United FC 9-18-6
Major League Soccer · 13th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ATLANTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ATLANTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ATLANTA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ATLANTA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Atlanta United FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Toronto FC at Atlanta United FC
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