San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerMinnesota United FC 47%
- Projected scoreMinnesota United FC 1.7, San Jose Earthquakes 1.3
- Model spreadMinnesota United FC −0.5 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
San Jose Earthquakes or Minnesota United FC: the bandwagon
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Axle 27–47Market 24–55
San Jose Earthquakes at Minnesota United FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SJ | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SJ– | MIN– |
| Average win probability | SJ– | MIN– |
| Longest scoring run | SJ– | MIN– |
| Time leading | SJ– | MIN– |
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MIN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:45 PM ET | 47% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 45% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 46% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 43% | — |
- Ratings
- MIN 1495 · SJ 1489
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Minnesota United FC at 54%, Polymarket at 55% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 47%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SJ | Draw | MIN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 24% | 21% | 54% | ||
| Polymarket | 23% | 22% | 55% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 27% | 26% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Minnesota United FC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 47% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Minnesota United FC 1495 (13th of 30), San Jose Earthquakes 1489 (16th). The Minnesota United FC are 10-12-11; the San Jose Earthquakes are 14-9-10. The Minnesota United FC have won 3 of their last 5; the San Jose Earthquakes 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Minnesota United FC won 5, the San Jose Earthquakes 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
San Jose Earthquakes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Real Salt Lake | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado Rapids | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Dallas | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nashville SC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Salt Lake | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Minnesota United FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at LAFC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sporting Kansas City | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Dynamo FC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. Louis CITY SC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Rapids | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota United FC at San Jose Earthquakes | 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Earthquakes at Minnesota United FC | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota United FC at San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Minnesota United FC at San Jose Earthquakes | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Earthquakes at Minnesota United FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Earthquakes at Minnesota United FC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
San Jose Earthquakes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Minnesota United FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- San Jose Earthquakes14-9-10 3rd
- San Jose Earthquakes rating1489 16th of 30, 33 games
- Minnesota United FC10-12-11 12th
- Minnesota United FC rating1495 13th of 30, 33 games
San Jose Earthquakes 14-9-10
Major League Soccer · 3rd
No stances yet today on $SANJOSE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Jose Earthquakes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Minnesota United FC 10-12-11
Major League Soccer · 12th
No stances yet today on $MINNESOTA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota United FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Minnesota United FC 47% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Minnesota United FC 1.7, San Jose Earthquakes 1.3; spread Minnesota United FC −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 54%, Polymarket 55% for Minnesota United FC. San Jose Earthquakes at Minnesota United FC, Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ET.