MLS tonight: San Jose beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 at home, and that is the whole story of the final. The model had the Earthquakes at 47 percent before kickoff, and the crowd has not weighed in yet with any picks.
MLS · · Stevens Stadium · every Major League Soccer line
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreReal Salt Lake 1, San Jose Earthquakes 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSan Jose Earthquakes 47%
- Pregame Projected scoreSan Jose Earthquakes 1.8, Real Salt Lake 1.3
- Model spreadSan Jose Earthquakes −0.5 total 3
- Margin1 projected 0.5
- Total3 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Real Salt Lake or San Jose Earthquakes: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
Be the first on the bandwagon
Axle 27–47Market –
FinalPregame: SJ 60%Baseline: SJ 87.2% (+27.1)Big swing: 21.2 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| SJ | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
RSL 56.3%SJ 43.7%
Real Salt Lake at San Jose Earthquakes win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SJ+3.7 points for SJ over the last 10:00
Big swing21.2 ptstoward SJ at 4:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineSJ 87.2%game average, +27.1 points from the pregame 60.1%
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | RSL | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | RSL56.3% | SJ43.7% |
| Shots | RSL16 | SJ15 |
| Shots on target | RSL5 | SJ5 |
| Corners | RSL5 | SJ5 |
| Passes completed | RSL408/499 | SJ316/390 |
| Saves | RSL3 | SJ4 |
| Fouls | RSL13 | SJ13 |
| Offsides | RSL3 | SJ5 |
| Yellow cards | RSL2 | SJ2 |
| Red cards | RSL0 | SJ0 |
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | RSL | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| Score | RSL1 | SJ2 |
| Average win probability | RSL13% | SJ87% |
| Longest scoring run | RSL+1 | SJ+2 |
| Time leading | RSL0:00 | SJ86:00 |
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET
Real Salt Lake27%
Win chanceSan Jose Earthquakes47%
SpreadSJ −0.5closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+275away / +277draw / +114homeaway / draw / home
Line movementSJ win chance, 10 stored lines
−4 pts for SJ between Oct 29 and Oct 31
56%41%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | SJ win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 47% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 46% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 12:40 AM ET | 51% | — |
- Ratings
- SJ 1482 · RSL 1476
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET · 2026-10-31 21:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Real Salt Lake 1, San Jose Earthquakes 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
Real Salt LakeSan Jose Earthquakes
Neutrals only–
Real Salt LakeSan Jose Earthquakes
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, San Jose Earthquakes–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the San Jose Earthquakes a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 47% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: San Jose Earthquakes 1489 (16th of 30), Real Salt Lake 1469 (22nd). The San Jose Earthquakes are 14-9-10; the Real Salt Lake are 12-15-6. The San Jose Earthquakes have won 1 of their last 5; the Real Salt Lake 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the San Jose Earthquakes won 3, the Real Salt Lake 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Real Salt Lake
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Jose Earthquakes | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Austin FC | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. Louis CITY SC | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sporting Kansas City | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Jose Earthquakes | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Real Salt Lake | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Colorado Rapids | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Dallas | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nashville SC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Salt Lake | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes at Real Salt Lake | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Earthquakes at Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Salt Lake at San Jose Earthquakes | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Salt Lake at San Jose Earthquakes | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Jose Earthquakes at Real Salt Lake | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Salt Lake at San Jose Earthquakes | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Real Salt Lake: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Jose Earthquakes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Real Salt Lake12-15-6 11th
- Real Salt Lake rating1469 22nd of 30, 33 games
- San Jose Earthquakes14-9-10 3rd
- San Jose Earthquakes rating1489 16th of 30, 33 games
Real Salt Lake 12-15-6
Major League Soccer · 11th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SALTLAKE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SALTLAKE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SALTLAKE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SALTLAKE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Real Salt Lake bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
San Jose Earthquakes 14-9-10
Major League Soccer · 3rd
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SANJOSE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SANJOSE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SANJOSE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SANJOSE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Jose Earthquakes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Real Salt Lake at San Jose Earthquakes
Sign in to post a take on $SALTLAKESANJOSE261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Real Salt Lake 1, San Jose Earthquakes 2. Bandwagon's model had the San Jose Earthquakes at 47% and projected San Jose Earthquakes 1.8, Real Salt Lake 1.3; spread San Jose Earthquakes −0.5, total 3.