Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montréal prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerVancouver Whitecaps 54%
- Projected scoreVancouver Whitecaps 1.9, CF Montréal 1.1
- Model spreadVancouver Whitecaps −1 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Vancouver Whitecaps or CF Montréal: the bandwagon
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Axle 54–22Market 58–21
Vancouver Whitecaps at CF Montréal win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montréal live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montréal team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | VAN | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | VAN– | MTL– |
| Average win probability | VAN– | MTL– |
| Longest scoring run | VAN– | MTL– |
| Time leading | VAN– | MTL– |
Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montréal model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | MTL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:42 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 22% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 23% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 22% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 22% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 19% | — |
- Ratings
- MTL 1354 · VAN 1601
- Home spread
- +1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montréal odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Vancouver Whitecaps at 59%, Polymarket at 58% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 54%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | VAN | Draw | MTL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 59% | 21% | 20% | ||
| Polymarket | 58% | 21% | 21% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 54% | 25% | 22% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Vancouver Whitecaps vs CF Montréal prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Vancouver Whitecaps a 1-point favorite, with a 54% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: CF Montréal 1354 (29th of 30), Vancouver Whitecaps 1601 (3rd). The CF Montréal are 6-19-8; the Vancouver Whitecaps are 18-8-7. The CF Montréal have won 0 of their last 5; the Vancouver Whitecaps 3 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the CF Montréal won 1, the Vancouver Whitecaps 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Vancouver Whitecaps
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Seattle Sounders FC | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego FC | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado Rapids | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Austin FC | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at St. Louis CITY SC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
CF Montréal
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New York City FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte FC | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nashville SC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Sounders FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta United FC | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Montréal at Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps at CF Montréal | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| CF Montréal at Vancouver Whitecaps | 0–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Vancouver Whitecaps at CF Montréal | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Vancouver Whitecaps: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
CF Montréal: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Vancouver Whitecaps18-8-7 1st
- Vancouver Whitecaps rating1601 3rd of 30, 33 games
- CF Montréal6-19-8 15th
- CF Montréal rating1354 29th of 30, 33 games
Vancouver Whitecaps 18-8-7
Major League Soccer · 1st
No stances yet today on $VANCOUVER: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Vancouver Whitecaps bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
CF Montréal 6-19-8
Major League Soccer · 15th
No stances yet today on $CFMONTREAL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the CF Montréal bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Vancouver Whitecaps at CF Montréal
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Model: Vancouver Whitecaps 54% to win, draw 25%. Projected score Vancouver Whitecaps 1.9, CF Montréal 1.1; spread Vancouver Whitecaps −1, total 3. Kalshi 59%, Polymarket 58% for Vancouver Whitecaps. Vancouver Whitecaps at CF Montréal, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.