Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerChicago Fire FC 48%
- Projected scoreChicago Fire FC 2.0, Columbus Crew 1.5
- Model spreadChicago Fire FC −0.5 total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Columbus Crew or Chicago Fire FC: the bandwagon
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Axle 26–48Market 29–48
Columbus Crew at Chicago Fire FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire FC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | CLB | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CLB– | CHI– |
| Average win probability | CLB– | CHI– |
| Longest scoring run | CLB– | CHI– |
| Time leading | CLB– | CHI– |
Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire FC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 48% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 46% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 46% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 47% | — |
- Ratings
- CHI 1543 · CLB 1527
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Chicago Fire FC at 48%, Polymarket at 48%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 48%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CLB | Draw | CHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 29% | 23% | 48% | ||
| Polymarket | 29% | 23% | 48% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 26% | 26% | 48% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Columbus Crew vs Chicago Fire FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Chicago Fire FC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 48% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Chicago Fire FC 1543 (5th of 30), Columbus Crew 1527 (8th). The Chicago Fire FC are 16-10-7; the Columbus Crew are 13-15-5. The Chicago Fire FC have won 2 of their last 5; the Columbus Crew 5 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Chicago Fire FC won 1, the Columbus Crew 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Columbus Crew
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs D.C. United | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Dallas | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto FC | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cincinnati | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Chicago Fire FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Colorado Rapids | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando City SC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta United FC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New England Revolution | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Union | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire FC at Columbus Crew | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Columbus Crew at Chicago Fire FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Fire FC at Columbus Crew | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Columbus Crew at Chicago Fire FC | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Fire FC at Columbus Crew | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Fire FC at Columbus Crew | 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Columbus Crew: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Chicago Fire FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Columbus Crew13-15-5 8th
- Columbus Crew rating1527 8th of 30, 33 games
- Chicago Fire FC16-10-7 4th
- Chicago Fire FC rating1543 5th of 30, 33 games
Columbus Crew 13-15-5
Major League Soccer · 8th
No stances yet today on $COLUMBUS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Columbus Crew bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Chicago Fire FC 16-10-7
Major League Soccer · 4th
No stances yet today on $CHICAGO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chicago Fire FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Columbus Crew at Chicago Fire FC
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Model: Chicago Fire FC 48% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Chicago Fire FC 2.0, Columbus Crew 1.5; spread Chicago Fire FC −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 48%, Polymarket 48% for Chicago Fire FC. Columbus Crew at Chicago Fire FC, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.