Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerPhiladelphia Union 61%
- Projected scorePhiladelphia Union 2.3, Toronto FC 1.2
- Model spreadPhiladelphia Union −1 total 3.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Toronto FC or Philadelphia Union: the bandwagon
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Axle 17–61Market 16–67
Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TOR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOR– | PHI– |
| Average win probability | TOR– | PHI– |
| Longest scoring run | TOR– | PHI– |
| Time leading | TOR– | PHI– |
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 61% | +2 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 59% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 60% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 60% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 59% | — |
- Ratings
- PHI 1567 · TOR 1440
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Philadelphia Union at 67%, Polymarket at 66% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TOR | Draw | PHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16% | 18% | 67% | ||
| Polymarket | 16% | 18% | 66% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 17% | 22% | 61% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Philadelphia Union a 1-point favorite at home, with a 61% chance to win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Philadelphia Union 1567 (4th of 30), Toronto FC 1440 (24th). The Philadelphia Union are 13-12-8; the Toronto FC are 9-12-12. The Philadelphia Union have won 1 of their last 5; the Toronto FC 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Philadelphia Union won 1, the Toronto FC 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Toronto FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Atlanta United FC | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs D.C. United | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Columbus Crew | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Red Bull New York | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando City SC | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup |
Philadelphia Union
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at FC Cincinnati | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nashville SC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New England Revolution | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Fire FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Union at Toronto FC | 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at Toronto FC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at Toronto FC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Philadelphia Union at Toronto FC | 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Toronto FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Philadelphia Union: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Toronto FC9-12-12 12th
- Toronto FC rating1440 24th of 30, 33 games
- Philadelphia Union13-12-8 6th
- Philadelphia Union rating1567 4th of 30, 33 games
Toronto FC 9-12-12
Major League Soccer · 12th
No stances yet today on $TORONTO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Philadelphia Union 13-12-8
Major League Soccer · 6th
No stances yet today on $PHILADELPHIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Philadelphia Union bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Philadelphia Union 61% to win, draw 22%. Projected score Philadelphia Union 2.3, Toronto FC 1.2; spread Philadelphia Union −1, total 3.5. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 66% for Philadelphia Union. Toronto FC at Philadelphia Union, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.