New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerOrlando City SC 45%
- Projected scoreOrlando City SC 2.2, New England Revolution 1.8
- Model spreadOrlando City SC −0.5 total 4
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
New England Revolution or Orlando City SC: the bandwagon
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Axle 29–45Market 29–49
New England Revolution at Orlando City SC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NE | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NE– | ORL– |
| Average win probability | NE– | ORL– |
| Longest scoring run | NE– | ORL– |
| Time leading | NE– | ORL– |
New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ORL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 9:23 PM ET | 45% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 6:41 PM ET | 44% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:44 PM ET | 43% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 7:12 PM ET | 44% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:11 PM ET | 44% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 4:12 PM ET | 43% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 4:06 PM ET | 44% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 43% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 45% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- ORL 1492 · NE 1506
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Orlando City SC at 49%, Polymarket at 49%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 45%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | NE | Draw | ORL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 29% | 21% | 49% | ||
| Polymarket | 29% | 22% | 49% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 29% | 27% | 45% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
New England Revolution vs Orlando City SC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Orlando City SC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 45% chance to win and a 27% chance of a draw. The model total is 4. Ratings: Orlando City SC 1492 (15th of 30), New England Revolution 1506 (11th). The Orlando City SC are 12-14-7; the New England Revolution are 18-11-4. The Orlando City SC have won 1 of their last 5; the New England Revolution 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Orlando City SC won 4, the New England Revolution 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
New England Revolution
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Inter Miami CF | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Red Bull New York | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia Union | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Fire FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cincinnati | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Orlando City SC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Charlotte FC | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Fire FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York City FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs D.C. United | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toronto FC | T 3–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando City SC at New England Revolution | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Orlando City SC at New England Revolution | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| New England Revolution at Orlando City SC | 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| New England Revolution at Orlando City SC | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Orlando City SC at New England Revolution | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| New England Revolution at Orlando City SC | 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
New England Revolution: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Orlando City SC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- New England Revolution18-11-4 3rd
- New England Revolution rating1506 11th of 30, 33 games
- Orlando City SC12-14-7 9th
- Orlando City SC rating1492 15th of 30, 33 games
New England Revolution 18-11-4
Major League Soccer · 3rd
No stances yet today on $NEWENGLAND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the New England Revolution bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Orlando City SC 12-14-7
Major League Soccer · 9th
No stances yet today on $ORLANDO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Orlando City SC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on New England Revolution at Orlando City SC
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Model: Orlando City SC 45% to win, draw 27%. Projected score Orlando City SC 2.2, New England Revolution 1.8; spread Orlando City SC −0.5, total 4. Kalshi 49%, Polymarket 49% for Orlando City SC. New England Revolution at Orlando City SC, Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET.