NBA odds, Nov 9–15, 2026: Bandwagon's model vs Kalshi and Polymarket
Bandwagon's model has a line on 51 of 51 NBA games Nov 9–15, 2026. Its biggest favorite is Knicks at 91%, against Bucks; its closest game is Grizzlies at Pelicans, 50%–50%. The largest gap with a market is Grizzlies at Raptors: the model gives Raptors 72% and Polymarket 47% (25 points). Model as of Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET; prices as of Nov 11, 3:01 AM ET.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
NBA Nov 9–15, 2026 slate
51 games| Kickoff (ET) | Game | Model win chance | Model spread | Model total | Kalshi | Polymarket | Crowd | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavaliers at Hornets | Cavaliers 59% | Cavaliers −1 | 222 | Cavaliers 75% | Cavaliers 75% | – | Cavaliers 112, Hornets 124 model's favorite lost | |
| Lakers at Hawks | Hawks 52% | Hawks −2 | 232.5 | Hawks 56% | Hawks 55% | – | Lakers 124, Hawks 114 model's favorite lost | |
| Wizards at Pistons | Pistons 85% | Pistons −14 | 221.5 | Pistons 79% | Pistons 79% | – | Wizards 111, Pistons 122 model's favorite won | |
| Grizzlies at Raptors | Raptors 72% | Raptors −8 | 229.5 | Raptors 48% | Raptors 47% | – | Grizzlies 118, Raptors 102 model's favorite lost | |
| Pacers at Mavericks | Mavericks 63% | Mavericks −5 | 225 | Mavericks 64% | Mavericks 63% | – | Pacers 122, Mavericks 125 model's favorite won | |
| Nuggets at Rockets | Rockets 62% | Rockets −5 | 226.5 | Rockets 64% | Rockets 65% | – | Nuggets 100, Rockets 110 model's favorite won | |
| Spurs at Suns | Spurs 73% | Spurs −5.5 | 228.5 | Spurs 77% | Spurs 77% | – | Spurs 122, Suns 96 model's favorite won | |
| Pelicans at Warriors | Warriors 75% | Warriors −9 | 234 | Warriors 83% | Warriors 83% | – | Pelicans 87, Warriors 138 model's favorite won | |
| Bucks at Knicks | Knicks 91% | Knicks −18 | 224.5 | Knicks 90% | Knicks 91% | – | Bucks 85, Knicks 117 model's favorite won | |
| Celtics at 76ers | Celtics 54% | 76ers −0.5 | 222.5 | Celtics 54% | Celtics 54% | – | Celtics 123, 76ers 101 model's favorite won | |
| Clippers at Suns | Clippers 53% | Suns −1 | 229 | Clippers 39% | Clippers 39% | – | Clippers 110, Suns 133 model's favorite lost | |
| Heat at Jazz | Heat 69% | Heat −4 | 229.5 | Heat 77% | Heat 77% | – | Heat 115, Jazz 109 model's favorite won | |
| Magic at Kings | Magic 65% | Magic −2.5 | 227.5 | Magic 66% | Magic 66% | – | Magic 107, Kings 100 model's favorite won | |
| Thunder at Trail Blazers | Thunder 62% | Thunder −2 | 226 | Thunder 53% | Thunder 53% | – | Thunder 103, Trail Blazers 123 model's favorite lost | |
| Cavaliers at Knicks | Knicks 68% | Knicks −7 | 224.5 | Knicks 62% | Knicks 63% | – | – | |
| Celtics at Raptors | Celtics 57% | Celtics −0.5 | 225.5 | Celtics 73% | Celtics 74% | – | – | |
| Wizards at Pacers | Pacers 59% | Pacers −4 | 224 | Pacers 59% | Pacers 59% | – | – | |
| Lakers at Bucks | Lakers 86% | Lakers −11 | 230 | Lakers 85% | Lakers 86% | – | – | |
| Nets at Pelicans | Pelicans 67% | Pelicans −6.5 | 230 | Pelicans 63% | Pelicans 64% | – | – | |
| Nuggets at Grizzlies | Nuggets 59% | Nuggets −1 | 228 | Nuggets 61% | Nuggets 61% | – | – | |
| Spurs at Bulls | Spurs 87% | Spurs −12 | 232 | Spurs 91% | Spurs 91% | – | – | |
| Magic at Jazz | Magic 71% | Magic −4.5 | 224.5 | Magic 62% | Magic 63% | – | – | |
| Warriors at Rockets | Rockets 65% | Rockets −6 | 226.5 | Rockets 67% | Rockets 68% | – | – | |
| Thunder at Trail Blazers | Thunder 56% | even | 226 | Thunder 52% | Thunder 53% | – | – | |
| Pistons at Wizards | Pistons 87% | Pistons −11.5 | 221.5 | Pistons 79% | Pistons 78% | – | – | |
| Raptors at 76ers | 76ers 67% | 76ers −6.5 | 226 | 76ers 79% | 76ers 81% | – | – | |
| Mavericks at Timberwolves | Timberwolves 77% | Timberwolves −10 | 225.5 | Timberwolves 66% | Timberwolves 66% | – | – | |
| Hornets at Suns | Suns 58% | Suns −4 | 222.5 | Suns 68% | Suns 68% | – | – | |
| Bucks at Magic | Magic 76% | Magic −9.5 | 225 | Magic 71% | Magic 70% | – | – | |
| Knicks at Pacers | Knicks 83% | Knicks −9.5 | 222 | Knicks 72% | Knicks 72% | – | – | |
| Cavaliers at Heat | Cavaliers 52% | Heat −1 | 232 | Cavaliers 47% | Cavaliers 47% | – | – | |
| Grizzlies at Pelicans | Pelicans 50% | Pelicans −1.5 | 232 | Pelicans 45% | Pelicans 46% | – | – | |
| Hawks at Bulls | Hawks 70% | Hawks −4.5 | 234.5 | Hawks 70% | Hawks 70% | – | – | |
| Jazz at Rockets | Rockets 90% | Rockets −17 | 224 | Rockets 88% | Rockets 88% | – | – | |
| Warriors at Spurs | Spurs 77% | Spurs −10 | 228.5 | Spurs 70% | Spurs 72% | – | – | |
| Trail Blazers at Kings | Trail Blazers 76% | Trail Blazers −6.5 | 230.5 | Trail Blazers 75% | Trail Blazers 75% | – | – | |
| Thunder at Clippers | Thunder 70% | Thunder −4.5 | 225 | Thunder 81% | Thunder 81% | – | – | |
| Nuggets at Pelicans | Nuggets 73% | Nuggets −5.5 | 231 | Nuggets 86% | Nuggets 79% | – | – | |
| Mavericks at Cavaliers | Cavaliers 60% | Cavaliers −4.5 | 228.5 | Cavaliers 62% | Cavaliers 56% | – | – | |
| Bulls at Timberwolves | Timberwolves 91% | Timberwolves −17.5 | 231.5 | Timberwolves 81% | Timberwolves 81% | – | – | |
| Nets at Grizzlies | Grizzlies 66% | Grizzlies −6.5 | 226.5 | Grizzlies 67% | Grizzlies 68% | – | – | |
| Pistons at Heat | Pistons 71% | Pistons −5 | 227 | Pistons 54% | Pistons 54% | – | – | |
| Pacers at 76ers | 76ers 81% | 76ers −11.5 | 224.5 | 76ers 75% | 76ers 76% | – | – | |
| Lakers at Suns | Lakers 65% | Lakers −2.5 | 232 | Lakers 76% | Lakers 77% | – | – | |
| Hornets at Clippers | Clippers 55% | Clippers −3 | 222.5 | Clippers 59% | Clippers 59% | – | – | |
| Spurs at Jazz | Spurs 91% | Spurs −14 | 226 | – | Spurs 93% | – | – | |
| Knicks at Raptors | Knicks 66% | Knicks −3 | 223.5 | Knicks 56% | Knicks 53% | – | – | |
| Mavericks at Celtics | Celtics 86% | Celtics −14.5 | 223.5 | Celtics 71% | Celtics 73% | – | – | |
| Rockets at Wizards | Rockets 79% | Rockets −8 | 222.5 | Rockets 87% | Rockets 76% | – | – | |
| Hawks at Bucks | Hawks 71% | Hawks −4.5 | 229.5 | – | Hawks 64% | – | – | |
| Thunder at Kings | Thunder 85% | Thunder −10.5 | 225 | – | Thunder 84% | – | – |
Kalshi and Polymarket show their implied chance for the side the model favors (the home side where the model has no favorite), from the newest price in the last day; for a game already played, the last price before kickoff. The crowd column is Bandwagon members' picks.
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
The model's record this week
The model's favorite won 9 of 14 finished NBA games that had a favorite (64%). Each line is the one stored before kickoff. The model's record