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Scoreless at kickoff, but the model has Liberty at 80 percent to win, and nobody in the stands has been asked yet. Fans of the program will say it is a home-field story from the first snap, and the numbers agree for now.

Utah State opens at home with the model giving the Aggies a 77 percent chance, and the scoreboard is still 0-0 at 14:55 of the first. Colorado State has time to change that shape, but the early numbers lean green and gold.

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