Scoreless at kickoff, but the model has Oregon at 72 percent to start. Crowd picks haven't come in yet, so the neutrals are still warming up in Eugene.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Northwestern Wildcats vs Oregon Ducks: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreNorthwestern 26, Oregon 34 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerOregon 72%
- Pregame Projected scoreOregon 30, Northwestern 21
- Model spreadOregon −9 total 51.5
- Margin8 projected 9
- Total60 projected 51.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Northwestern Wildcats or Oregon Ducks: the bandwagon
Axle 28–72Market 37–63
FinalPregame: ORE 72%Baseline: ORE 56.1% (−15.4)Big swing: 43.6 ptsClutch window: 15:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 10 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 26 |
| ORE | 3 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to ORE+11.0 points for ORE over the last 5:00
Big swing43.6 ptstoward ORE at 49:40 of game time
Clutch window15:00within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineORE 56.1%game average, −15.4 points from the pregame 71.5%
Northwestern Wildcats vs Oregon Ducks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | NU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | NU456 | ORE441 |
| First downs | NU22 | ORE17 |
| 3rd down | NU7/17 | ORE6/14 |
| 4th down | NU1/1 | ORE1/1 |
| Turnovers | NU0 | ORE1 |
| Penalties-yards | NU5-35 | ORE1-5 |
| Time of possession | NU35:54 | ORE24:06 |
Northwestern Wildcats vs Oregon Ducks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | NU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NU26 | ORE34 |
| Average win probability | NU44% | ORE56% |
| Longest scoring run | NU+10 | ORE+14 |
| Time leading | NU40:16 | ORE13:58 |
Northwestern Wildcats vs Oregon Ducks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET
Wildcats28%
Win chanceDucks72%
SpreadORE −9closing model spread
Total51.5
Moneyline+252away / −252homeaway / home
Line movementORE win chance, 21 stored lines
+5 pts for ORE between Oct 28 and Oct 31
77%61%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | ORE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 72% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 71% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 72% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 71% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 72% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 71% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 72% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 71% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 72% | +5 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 67% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 67% | — |
- Ratings
- ORE 1680 · NU 1605
- Home spread
- −9
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Northwestern Wildcats 26, Oregon Ducks 34. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
WildcatsDucks
Neutrals only–
WildcatsDucks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Ducks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Northwestern vs Oregon odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Ducks at 63% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 64% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 72% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | NU | ORE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37% | 63% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 36% | 64% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 72% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, ORE: −9Polymarket minus model, ORE: −8
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Northwestern Wildcats vs Oregon Ducks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Ducks a 9-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 51.5. Ratings: Ducks 1697 (12th of 138), Wildcats 1588 (36th). The Ducks have won 3 of their last 5; the Wildcats 4 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Ducks won 1, the Wildcats 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Northwestern Wildcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Oregon Ducks | L 26–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights | W 42–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan State Spartans | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ball State Cardinals | W 45–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Penn State Nittany Lions | W 34–13 | – | – | matchup |
Oregon Ducks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Northwestern Wildcats | W 34–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Illinois Fighting Illini | L 10–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 15–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at USC Trojans | W 41–27 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon Ducks at Northwestern Wildcats | 34–14 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Northwestern Wildcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Oregon Ducks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wildcats– 6th · L1
- Wildcats rating1588 36th of 138, 7 games
- Ducks– 9th · W1
- Ducks rating1697 12th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $NU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northwestern Wildcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ORE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ORE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ORE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ORE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oregon Ducks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Northwestern Wildcats at Oregon Ducks
Sign in to post a take on $NUORE261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Northwestern 26, Oregon 34. Bandwagon's model had the Oregon at 72% and projected Oregon 30, Northwestern 21; spread Oregon −9, total 51.5. Last read: Kalshi 63%, Polymarket 64% for Oregon.