San Diego State leads Washington State 14-7 with 6:23 left in the second quarter, and the model has the Aztecs at 63 percent. Crowd picks haven't come in yet, so the bandwagon is still parked at the station.
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Washington State Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreWashington State 20, San Diego State 26 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSan Diego State 63%
- Pregame Projected scoreSan Diego State 29, Washington State 24
- Model spreadSan Diego State −5 total 53
- Margin6 projected 5
- Total46 projected 53
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Washington State Cougars or San Diego State Aztecs: the bandwagon
Axle 37–63Market 44–56
FinalPregame: SDSU 63%Baseline: SDSU 74.7% (+12.2)Big swing: 22.6 ptsClutch window: 12:01
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 20 |
| SDSU | 7 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SDSU+5.0 points for SDSU over the last 5:00
Big swing22.6 ptstoward SDSU at 30:00 of game time
Clutch window12:01within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineSDSU 74.7%game average, +12.2 points from the pregame 62.5%
Washington State Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | WSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | WSU367 | SDSU306 |
| First downs | WSU25 | SDSU18 |
| 3rd down | WSU9/14 | SDSU5/11 |
| 4th down | WSU0/3 | SDSU1/1 |
| Turnovers | WSU1 | SDSU1 |
| Penalties-yards | WSU3-35 | SDSU2-24 |
| Time of possession | WSU33:05 | SDSU26:55 |
Washington State Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | WSU | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | WSU20 | SDSU26 |
| Average win probability | WSU25% | SDSU75% |
| Longest scoring run | WSU+7 | SDSU+21 |
| Time leading | WSU0:00 | SDSU43:46 |
Washington State Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET
Cougars37%
Win chanceAztecs63%
SpreadSDSU −5closing model spread
Total53
Moneyline+167away / −167homeaway / home
Line movementSDSU win chance, 26 stored lines
−6 pts for SDSU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
74%57%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | SDSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 63% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 62% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 63% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 62% | −7 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 69% | — |
- Ratings
- SDSU 1393 · WSU 1376
- Home spread
- −5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET · 2026-11-01 00:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Washington State Cougars 20, San Diego State Aztecs 26. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
CougarsAztecs
Neutrals only–
CougarsAztecs
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Aztecs–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Washington State vs San Diego State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Aztecs at 56% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 57% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 63% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | WSU | SDSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 44% | 56% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 43% | 57% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 37% | 63% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, SDSU: −7Polymarket minus model, SDSU: −6
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Washington State Cougars vs San Diego State Aztecs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aztecs a 5-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 53. Ratings: Aztecs 1412 (97th of 138), Cougars 1357 (119th). The Aztecs have won 3 of their last 5; the Cougars 0 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Aztecs won 0, the Cougars 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Washington State Cougars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 20–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boise State Broncos | L 10–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oregon State Beavers | L 30–48 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah State Aggies | L 16–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fresno State Bulldogs | L 6–26 | – | – | matchup |
San Diego State Aztecs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 26–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Colorado State Rams | L 49–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fresno State Bulldogs | W 26–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oregon State Beavers | L 14–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas State Bobcats | W 31–29 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State Aztecs at Washington State Cougars | 13–36 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs | 29–26 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Washington State Cougars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Diego State Aztecs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cougars– 8th · L6
- Cougars rating1357 119th of 138, 8 games
- Aztecs– 5th · W1
- Aztecs rating1412 97th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak L6
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $WSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $WSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $WSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $WSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington State Cougars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 5th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $SDSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $SDSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $SDSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $SDSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego State Aztecs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Washington State Cougars at San Diego State Aztecs
Sign in to post a take on $WSUSDSU261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Washington State 20, San Diego State 26. Bandwagon's model had the San Diego State at 63% and projected San Diego State 29, Washington State 24; spread San Diego State −5, total 53. Last read: Kalshi 56%, Polymarket 57% for San Diego State.