Scoreless at kickoff, but the model has Liberty at 80 percent to win, and nobody in the stands has been asked yet. Fans of the program will say it is a home-field story from the first snap, and the numbers agree for now.
FBS · · Williams Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Florida International Panthers vs Liberty Flames: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreFlorida International 10, Liberty 49 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerLiberty 80%
- Pregame Projected scoreLiberty 30, Florida International 17
- Model spreadLiberty −13.5 total 47
- Margin39 projected 13.5
- Total59 projected 47
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Florida International Panthers or Liberty Flames: the bandwagon
Axle 20–80Market 17–83
FinalPregame: LIB 80%Baseline: LIB 94.9% (+15.1)Big swing: 8.6 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| LIB | 7 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 49 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Florida International Panthers at Liberty Flames win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for LIB over the last 5:00
Big swing8.6 ptstoward LIB at 3:07 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineLIB 94.9%game average, +15.1 points from the pregame 79.8%
Florida International Panthers vs Liberty Flames live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | FIU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | FIU210 | LIB391 |
| First downs | FIU15 | LIB24 |
| 3rd down | FIU2/10 | LIB5/8 |
| 4th down | FIU0/1 | LIB0/0 |
| Turnovers | FIU1 | LIB1 |
| Penalties-yards | FIU8-75 | LIB6-60 |
| Time of possession | FIU30:46 | LIB29:14 |
Florida International Panthers vs Liberty Flames team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | FIU | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FIU10 | LIB49 |
| Average win probability | FIU5% | LIB95% |
| Longest scoring run | FIU+7 | LIB+48 |
| Time leading | FIU0:00 | LIB55:20 |
Florida International Panthers vs Liberty Flames model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET
Panthers20%
Win chanceFlames80%
SpreadLIB −13.5closing model spread
Total47
Moneyline+395away / −395homeaway / home
Line movementLIB win chance, 22 stored lines
−2 pts for LIB between Oct 28 and Oct 31
87%74%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | LIB win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 80% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 82% | — |
- Ratings
- LIB 1566 · FIU 1427
- Home spread
- −13.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Florida International Panthers 10, Liberty Flames 49. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
PanthersFlames
Neutrals only–
PanthersFlames
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Flames–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Florida International vs Liberty odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Flames at 84% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 83% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 80% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | FIU | LIB | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 16% | 84% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 17% | 83% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 20% | 80% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, LIB: +4Polymarket minus model, LIB: +3
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Florida International Panthers vs Liberty Flames prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Flames a 13.5-point favorite at home, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 47. Ratings: Flames 1587 (37th of 138), Panthers 1406 (100th). The Flames have won 5 of their last 5; the Panthers 1 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Flames won 2, the Panthers 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Florida International Panthers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Liberty Flames | L 10–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | L 23–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Jacksonville State Gamecocks | L 24–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New Mexico State Aggies | W 22–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida Atlantic Owls | L 10–16 | – | – | matchup |
Liberty Flames
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Florida International Panthers | W 49–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kennesaw State Owls | W 34–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 35–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Delaware Blue Hens | W 30–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty Flames at Florida International Panthers | 27–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Florida International Panthers at Liberty Flames | 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Liberty Flames at Florida International Panthers | 38–6 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Florida International Panthers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Liberty Flames: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Panthers– 8th · L3
- Panthers rating1406 100th of 138, 7 games
- Flames– 1st · W7
- Flames rating1587 37th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak L3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FIU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FIU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FIU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FIU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Florida International Panthers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W7
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LIB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LIB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LIB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LIB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Liberty Flames bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Florida International Panthers at Liberty Flames
Sign in to post a take on $FIULIB261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Florida International 10, Liberty 49. Bandwagon's model had the Liberty at 80% and projected Liberty 30, Florida International 17; spread Liberty −13.5, total 47. Last read: Kalshi 84%, Polymarket 83% for Liberty.