Scoreless at kickoff, but the model has BYU at 82 percent to win, and the crowd hasn't weighed in yet. The program's home crowd will want to see that number hold through the first quarter.
FBS · · LaVell Edwards Stadium · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Arizona State Sun Devils vs BYU Cougars: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreArizona State 20, BYU 27 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerBYU 83%
- Pregame Projected scoreBYU 35, Arizona State 19
- Model spreadBYU −15.5 total 53.5
- Margin7 projected 15.5
- Total47 projected 53.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Arizona State Sun Devils or BYU Cougars: the bandwagon
Axle 17–83Market 13–87
FinalPregame: BYU 83%Baseline: BYU 87.1% (+4.6)Big swing: 26.3 ptsClutch window: 13:48
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASU | 0 | 3 | 14 | 3 | 20 |
| BYU | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU Cougars win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to BYU+8.3 points for BYU over the last 5:00
Big swing26.3 ptstoward ASU at 43:45 of game time
Clutch window13:48within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineBYU 87.1%game average, +4.6 points from the pregame 82.5%
Arizona State Sun Devils vs BYU Cougars live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ASU | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | ASU279 | BYU283 |
| First downs | ASU20 | BYU18 |
| 3rd down | ASU6/17 | BYU3/13 |
| 4th down | ASU2/2 | BYU3/4 |
| Turnovers | ASU1 | BYU2 |
| Penalties-yards | ASU6-61 | BYU2-19 |
| Time of possession | ASU31:25 | BYU28:35 |
Arizona State Sun Devils vs BYU Cougars team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ASU | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ASU20 | BYU27 |
| Average win probability | ASU13% | BYU87% |
| Longest scoring run | ASU+28 | BYU+13 |
| Time leading | ASU0:00 | BYU51:25 |
Arizona State Sun Devils vs BYU Cougars model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET
Sun Devils17%
Win chanceCougars83%
SpreadBYU −15.5closing model spread
Total53.5
Moneyline+473away / −473homeaway / home
Line movementBYU win chance, 23 stored lines
−4 pts for BYU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
92%77%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | BYU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 83% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 82% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 83% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 82% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 83% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 82% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 83% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 82% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 83% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 87% | — |
- Ratings
- BYU 1695 · ASU 1531
- Home spread
- −15.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- home 82% → 83%
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Arizona State Sun Devils 20, BYU Cougars 27. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Sun DevilsCougars
Neutrals only–
Sun DevilsCougars
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Cougars–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Arizona State vs BYU odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Cougars at 87% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 88% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 83% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | ASU | BYU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 13% | 87% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 12% | 88% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 17% | 83% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, BYU: +4Polymarket minus model, BYU: +5
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Arizona State Sun Devils vs BYU Cougars prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cougars a 15.5-point favorite at home, with a 83% chance to win. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Cougars 1705 (10th of 138), Sun Devils 1520 (64th). The Cougars have won 4 of their last 5; the Sun Devils 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Cougars won 0, the Sun Devils 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Arizona State Sun Devils
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at BYU Cougars | L 20–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas State Wildcats | W 28–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas Tech Red Raiders | L 25–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | W 30–12 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Baylor Bears | L 19–55 | – | – | matchup |
BYU Cougars
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Arizona State Sun Devils | W 27–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCF Knights | L 31–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | W 28–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa State Cyclones | W 24–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at TCU Horned Frogs | W 17–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU Cougars at Arizona State Sun Devils | 23–28 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Arizona State Sun Devils: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
BYU Cougars: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Sun Devils– 12th · L1
- Sun Devils rating1520 64th of 138, 7 games
- Cougars– 2nd · W1
- Cougars rating1705 10th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ASU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ASU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ASU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ASU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arizona State Sun Devils bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BYU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BYU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BYU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BYU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the BYU Cougars bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arizona State Sun Devils at BYU Cougars
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Final: Arizona State 20, BYU 27. Bandwagon's model had the BYU at 83% and projected BYU 35, Arizona State 19; spread BYU −15.5, total 53.5. Last read: Kalshi 87%, Polymarket 88% for BYU.