Fulham and Aston Villa finished 1-1, and the table will record it as a point apiece. The model still has Villa ahead at 54 percent, but no supporters have voted yet, so the crowd figure is blank.
Premier League · · Villa Park · every Premier League line
Fulham vs Aston Villa: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreFulham 1, Aston Villa 1 a draw
- Pregame Projected winnerAston Villa 54%
- Pregame Projected scoreAston Villa 1.5, Fulham 1.0
- Model spreadAston Villa −0.5 total 2.5
- Margin0 projected 0.5
- Total2 projected 2.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Fulham or Aston Villa: the bandwagon
Axle 21–54Market 25–48
FinalPregame: AVL 66%Baseline: AVL 68.8% (+2.5)Big swing: 32.4 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| FUL | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| AVL | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
FUL 55%AVL 45%
Fulham at Aston Villa win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to FUL−4.7 points for AVL over the last 10:00
Big swing32.4 ptstoward FUL at 66:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineAVL 68.8%game average, +2.5 points from the pregame 66.3%
Fulham vs Aston Villa live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | FUL | AVL |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | FUL55% | AVL45% |
| Shots | FUL14 | AVL16 |
| Shots on target | FUL5 | AVL3 |
| Corners | FUL7 | AVL7 |
| Passes completed | FUL474/536 | AVL373/434 |
| Saves | FUL2 | AVL4 |
| Fouls | FUL12 | AVL7 |
| Offsides | FUL4 | AVL2 |
| Yellow cards | FUL3 | AVL1 |
| Red cards | FUL0 | AVL0 |
Fulham vs Aston Villa team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | FUL | AVL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | FUL1 | AVL1 |
| Average win probability | FUL31% | AVL69% |
| Longest scoring run | FUL+1 | AVL+1 |
| Time leading | FUL0:00 | AVL25:00 |
Fulham vs Aston Villa model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET
Fulham21%
Win chanceAston Villa54%
SpreadAVL −0.5closing model spread
Total2.5
Moneyline+370away / +302draw / −117homeaway / draw / home
Line movementAVL win chance, 10 stored lines
+4 pts for AVL between Oct 28 and Oct 31
59%44%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | AVL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 1:01 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 12:56 PM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 54% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 54% | +4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 50% | — |
- Ratings
- AVL 1482 · FUL 1413
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 3:26 PM ET · 2026-10-31 19:26 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Fulham 1, Aston Villa 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
FulhamAston Villa
Neutrals only–
FulhamAston Villa
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Aston Villa–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Fulham vs Aston Villa odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi had Aston Villa at 48% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 48% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 54% when last read, .
| Source | FUL | Draw | AVL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 25% | 27% | 48% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 25% | 27% | 48% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 21% | 25% | 54% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, AVL: −6Polymarket minus model, AVL: −6
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Fulham vs Aston Villa prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aston Villa a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 54% chance to win and a 25% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Aston Villa 1478 (6th of 20), Fulham 1416 (12th). The Aston Villa are 3-3-3; the Fulham are 2-4-3. The Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 5; the Fulham 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Aston Villa won 5, the Fulham 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Fulham
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Aston Villa | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coventry City | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hull City | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ipswich Town | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester United | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Aston Villa
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Barcelona | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fulham | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester City | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Newcastle United | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brentford | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa at Fulham | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fulham at Aston Villa | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fulham at Aston Villa | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Aston Villa at Fulham | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Aston Villa at Fulham | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Fulham at Aston Villa | 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Fulham: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Aston Villa: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fulham2-4-3 15th
- Fulham rating1416 12th of 20, 9 games
- Aston Villa3-3-3 10th
- Aston Villa rating1478 6th of 20, 9 games
Fulham 2-4-3
Premier League · 15th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $FULHAM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $FULHAM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $FULHAM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $FULHAM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Fulham bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Aston Villa 3-3-3
Premier League · 10th
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ASTONVILLA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ASTONVILLA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ASTONVILLA
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ASTONVILLA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Aston Villa bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Fulham at Aston Villa
Sign in to post a take on $FULHAMASTONVILLA261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Fulham 1, Aston Villa 1. Bandwagon's model had the Aston Villa at 54% and projected Aston Villa 1.5, Fulham 1.0; spread Aston Villa −0.5, total 2.5. Last read: Kalshi 48%, Polymarket 48% for Aston Villa.