Scoreless at the opening whistle in Monroe, and the model has the Warhawks at 49 percent, a hair behind Southern Miss. Crowd picks haven't come in yet, so the fans get the first word on this one.
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Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe Warhawks: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreSouthern Miss 35, UL Monroe 21
- Pregame Projected winnereven
- Pregame Projected scoreUL Monroe 28, Southern Miss 28
- Model spreadSouthern Miss −0.5 total 55.5
- Margin14 projected 0.5
- Total56 projected 55.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Southern Miss Golden Eagles or UL Monroe Warhawks: the bandwagon
Axle 51–49Market 61–39
FinalPregame: ULM 49%Baseline: ULM 25.7% (−23.3)Big swing: 34.4 ptsClutch window: 4:55
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 0 | 10 | 17 | 8 | 35 |
| ULM | 0 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 21 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to USM−5.2 points for ULM over the last 5:00
Big swing34.4 ptstoward ULM at 31:45 of game time
Clutch window4:55within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineULM 25.7%game average, −23.3 points from the pregame 49.0%
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe Warhawks live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | USM379 | ULM359 |
| First downs | USM16 | ULM23 |
| 3rd down | USM5/18 | ULM7/16 |
| 4th down | USM2/3 | ULM0/3 |
| Turnovers | USM0 | ULM2 |
| Penalties-yards | USM9-87 | ULM5-46 |
| Time of possession | USM27:20 | ULM32:40 |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe Warhawks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Score | USM35 | ULM21 |
| Average win probability | USM74% | ULM26% |
| Longest scoring run | USM+17 | ULM+14 |
| Time leading | USM42:22 | ULM0:00 |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe Warhawks model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET
Golden Eagles51%
Win chanceWarhawks49%
SpreadUSM −0.5closing model spread
Total55.5
Moneyline−104away / +104homeaway / home
Line movementULM win chance, 23 stored lines
No move
55%43%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | ULM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 49% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 49% | — |
- Ratings
- ULM 1254 · USM 1315
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:46 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Southern Miss Golden Eagles 35, UL Monroe Warhawks 21. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Golden EaglesWarhawks
Neutrals only–
Golden EaglesWarhawks
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Warhawks–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Southern Miss vs UL Monroe odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Golden Eagles at 61% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 61% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 51% when last read, .
| Source | USM | ULM | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61% | 39% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 61% | 39% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 51% | 49% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, ULM: −10Polymarket minus model, ULM: −10
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs UL Monroe Warhawks prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 49% for the Warhawks. The model total is 55.5. Ratings: Warhawks 1221 (136th of 138), Golden Eagles 1348 (122nd). The Warhawks have won 1 of their last 5; the Golden Eagles 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Warhawks won 1, the Golden Eagles 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 35–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 35–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas State Red Wolves | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troy Trojans | L 34–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulane Green Wave | L 21–24 | – | – | matchup |
UL Monroe Warhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 21–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troy Trojans | W 21–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | L 0–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | L 35–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | L 17–45 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe Warhawks at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 21–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks | 21–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| UL Monroe Warhawks at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 7–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks | 20–10 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Southern Miss Golden Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UL Monroe Warhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Eagles– Sun Belt - West, 6th · W2
- Golden Eagles rating1348 122nd of 138, 7 games
- Warhawks– Sun Belt - West, 7th · L1
- Warhawks rating1221 136th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 6th · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $USM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $USM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $USM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $USM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 7th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ULM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ULM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ULM
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ULM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UL Monroe Warhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Southern Miss Golden Eagles at UL Monroe Warhawks
Sign in to post a take on $USMULM261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Southern Miss 35, UL Monroe 21. Bandwagon's model had it even and projected UL Monroe 28, Southern Miss 28; spread Southern Miss −0.5, total 55.5. Last read: Kalshi 61%, Polymarket 61% for Southern Miss.