Final in Fargo: North Dakota State 31, UTEP 7, a 24-point margin. The model had the Bison at 95 percent before kickoff, and the scoreboard did little to argue with it.
FBS · · Fargodome · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
UTEP Miners vs North Dakota State Bison: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreUTEP 7, North Dakota State 31 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerNorth Dakota State 95%
- Pregame Projected scoreNorth Dakota State 39, UTEP 10
- Model spreadNorth Dakota State −29.5 total 49
- Margin24 projected 29.5
- Total38 projected 49
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
UTEP Miners or North Dakota State Bison: the bandwagon
Axle 5–95Market 5–95
FinalPregame: NDSU 95%Baseline: NDSU 91.9% (−3.3)Big swing: 7.7 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| NDSU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 31 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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UTEP Miners at North Dakota State Bison win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+2.2 points for NDSU over the last 5:00
Big swing7.7 ptstoward UTEP at 2:22 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineNDSU 91.9%game average, −3.3 points from the pregame 95.2%
UTEP Miners vs North Dakota State Bison live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | UTEP | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | UTEP238 | NDSU381 |
| First downs | UTEP9 | NDSU19 |
| 3rd down | UTEP5/13 | NDSU5/14 |
| 4th down | UTEP0/0 | NDSU3/3 |
| Turnovers | UTEP3 | NDSU1 |
| Penalties-yards | UTEP7-60 | NDSU4-40 |
| Time of possession | UTEP23:16 | NDSU36:44 |
UTEP Miners vs North Dakota State Bison team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | UTEP | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTEP7 | NDSU31 |
| Average win probability | UTEP8% | NDSU92% |
| Longest scoring run | UTEP+7 | NDSU+31 |
| Time leading | UTEP23:51 | NDSU33:45 |
UTEP Miners vs North Dakota State Bison model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET
Miners5%
Win chanceBison95%
SpreadNDSU −29.5closing model spread
Total49
Moneyline+1962away / −1962homeaway / home
Line movementNDSU win chance, 22 stored lines
−2 pts for NDSU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
100%90%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | NDSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 95% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 97% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 97% | — |
- Ratings
- NDSU 1563 · UTEP 1197
- Home spread
- −29.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: UTEP Miners 7, North Dakota State Bison 31. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
MinersBison
Neutrals only–
MinersBison
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bison–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
UTEP vs North Dakota State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Bison at 95% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 95% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 95% when last read, .
| Source | UTEP | NDSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 5% | 95% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 5% | 95% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 5% | 95% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, NDSU: −1Polymarket minus model, NDSU: −1
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
UTEP Miners vs North Dakota State Bison prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bison a 29.5-point favorite at home, with a 95% chance to win. The model total is 49. Ratings: Bison 1568 (42nd of 138), Miners 1191 (138th). The Bison have won 3 of their last 5; the Miners 0 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
UTEP Miners
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at North Dakota State Bison | L 7–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San José State Spartans | L 11–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nevada Wolf Pack | L 13–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 7–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon State Beavers | L 7–33 | – | – | matchup |
North Dakota State Bison
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs UTEP Miners | W 31–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Mexico Lobos | L 16–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nevada Wolf Pack | W 31–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UNLV Rebels | L 7–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wyoming Cowboys | W 28–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UTEP Miners: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Dakota State Bison: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Miners– 9th · L6
- Miners rating1191 138th of 138, 7 games
- Bison– 2nd · W1
- Bison rating1568 42nd of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak L6
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $UTEP
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $UTEP
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $UTEP
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $UTEP: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UTEP Miners bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NDSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NDSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NDSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $NDSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Dakota State Bison bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UTEP Miners at North Dakota State Bison
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Final: UTEP 7, North Dakota State 31. Bandwagon's model had the North Dakota State at 95% and projected North Dakota State 39, UTEP 10; spread North Dakota State −29.5, total 49. Last read: Kalshi 95%, Polymarket 95% for North Dakota State.