Ligue 2 tonight: Troyes beat Le Mans 2-0 and the game is final. No crowd picks were recorded, so there is no fan read to compare against, and our model gave Troyes 40 percent before kickoff.
Ligue 1 · · Stade de l'Aube · every Ligue 1 line
Le Mans vs Troyes: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreLe Mans 0, Troyes 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerTroyes 40%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.5 each draw 26%
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Margin2 projected 0
- Total2 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Le Mans or Troyes: the bandwagon
Axle 34–40Market –
FinalPregame: TRY 53%Baseline: TRY 76.0% (+22.7)Big swing: 27.8 ptsClutch window: 28:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| MNS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TRY | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
MNS 61.1%TRY 38.9%
Le Mans at Troyes win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.1 points for TRY over the last 10:00
Big swing27.8 ptstoward TRY at 34:00 of game time
Clutch window28:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineTRY 76.0%game average, +22.7 points from the pregame 53.3%
Le Mans vs Troyes live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MNS | TRY |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | MNS61.1% | TRY38.9% |
| Shots | MNS3 | TRY14 |
| Shots on target | MNS1 | TRY8 |
| Corners | MNS2 | TRY4 |
| Passes completed | MNS504/577 | TRY283/358 |
| Saves | MNS5 | TRY1 |
| Fouls | MNS16 | TRY15 |
| Offsides | MNS1 | TRY2 |
| Yellow cards | MNS4 | TRY3 |
| Red cards | MNS0 | TRY0 |
Le Mans vs Troyes team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MNS | TRY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MNS0 | TRY2 |
| Average win probability | MNS24% | TRY76% |
| Longest scoring run | MNS+0 | TRY+2 |
| Time leading | MNS0:00 | TRY56:00 |
Le Mans vs Troyes odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Le Mans34%
Win chanceTroyes40%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+198away / +279draw / +149homeaway / draw / home
Line movementTRY win chance, 9 stored lines
−2 pts for TRY between Oct 29 and Oct 31
48%34%
Oct 29Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | TRY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:59 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 40% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 40% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 42% | — |
- Ratings
- TRY 1351 · MNS 1381
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Le Mans 0, Troyes 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Le MansTroyes
Neutrals only–
Le MansTroyes
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Troyes–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Le Mans vs Troyes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Troyes the favorite, with a 40% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Troyes 1365 (16th of 18), Le Mans 1367 (15th). The Troyes are 2-5-2; the Le Mans are 1-4-4. The Troyes have won 1 of their last 5; the Le Mans 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Le Mans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Troyes | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AJ Auxerre | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toulouse | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lorient | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Troyes
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Le Mans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Troyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Le Mans1-4-4 17th
- Le Mans rating1367 15th of 18, 9 games
- Troyes2-5-2 16th
- Troyes rating1365 16th of 18, 9 games
Le Mans 1-4-4
Ligue 1 · 17th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LEMANS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LEMANS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LEMANS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LEMANS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Le Mans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Troyes 2-5-2
Ligue 1 · 16th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TROYES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TROYES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TROYES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $TROYES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Troyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Le Mans at Troyes
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