Ligue 1 odds this week
Win chance, spread and total for every game. Today's Ligue 1 predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
Ligue 1 odds Friday, November 6
1 game| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg at Toulouse | Toulouse 41%draw 26% | PK | 3 | +209 / +283 / +141 | no move | Matchup |
Ligue 1 odds Saturday, November 7
2 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC at AJ Auxerre | Paris FC 43%draw 26% | PK | 3 | +130 / +286 / +226 | no move | Matchup | |
| Troyes at Paris Saint-Germain | Paris Saint-Germain 81%draw 12% | Paris Saint-Germain −2 | 3 | +1248 / +757 / −424 | no move | Matchup |
Ligue 1 odds Sunday, November 8
6 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / draw / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille at Stade Rennais | Stade Rennais 38%draw 26% | PK | 3 | +182 / +280 / +162 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lorient at Le Havre AC | Lorient 41%draw 26% | PK | 3 | +145 / +282 / +203 | no move | Matchup | |
| Lyon at Brest | Lyon 43%draw 26% | PK | 3 | +135 / +285 / +218 | no move | Matchup | |
| AS Monaco at Le Mans | AS Monaco 47%draw 25% | AS Monaco −0.5 | 3 | +114 / +294 / +258 | no move | Matchup | |
| Nice at Angers | Nice 43%draw 26% | PK | 3 | +130 / +286 / +226 | no move | Matchup | |
| Marseille at Lens | Lens 45%draw 26% | Lens −0.5 | 3 | +243 / +290 / +121 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 9 of 9
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 9 of 9
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 9
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 9
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 9 (No injury list read before this game; More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 9
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC - Weather in the data but not used for 9
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · newest read Nov 4, 10:03 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Ligue 1 team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1642 | 9 |
| 2 | Lille | 1536 | 9 |
| 3 | Lens | 1529 | 9 |
| 4 | Marseille | 1526 | 9 |
| 5 | Lyon | 1517 | 9 |
| 6 | AS Monaco | 1491 | 9 |
| 7 | Stade Rennais | 1490 | 9 |
| 8 | Paris FC | 1487 | 9 |
| 9 | Strasbourg | 1458 | 9 |
| 10 | Toulouse | 1435 | 9 |
| 11 | Nice | 1426 | 9 |
| 12 | Brest | 1421 | 9 |
Top 12 of 18; every team's rating is on its page.
Ligue 1 model record
Over 659 Ligue 1 games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 51% of the time, Brier score 0.2358, mean spread error 1.32 points, mean total error 1.369. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for Ligue 1 games this week: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.