Lorient vs Le Havre AC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerLorient 41%
- Projected scoreLorient 1.6, Le Havre AC 1.4
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Lorient or Le Havre AC: the bandwagon
Axle 41–33Market 37–34
Lorient at Le Havre AC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Lorient vs Le Havre AC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Lorient vs Le Havre AC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LOR | HAC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LOR– | HAC– |
| Average win probability | LOR– | HAC– |
| Longest scoring run | LOR– | HAC– |
| Time leading | LOR– | HAC– |
Lorient vs Le Havre AC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | HAC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 33% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:37 PM ET | 33% | +3 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:13 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:59 PM ET | 30% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET | 30% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 31% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 35% | — |
- Ratings
- HAC 1335 · LOR 1419
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Lorient vs Le Havre AC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Lorient at 37%, Polymarket at 37%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 41%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LOR | Draw | HAC | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37% | 29% | 34% | ||
| Polymarket | 37% | 29% | 34% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 41% | 26% | 33% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Lorient vs Le Havre AC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lorient the favorite, with a 41% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Le Havre AC 1335 (17th of 18), Lorient 1419 (13th). The Le Havre AC are 0-7-2; the Lorient are 3-2-3. The Le Havre AC have won 0 of their last 5; the Lorient 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Le Havre AC won 2, the Lorient 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Lorient
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Brest | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Angers | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AS Monaco | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Paris FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Le Mans | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Le Havre AC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marseille | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AJ Auxerre | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lille | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toulouse | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre AC at Lorient | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Lorient at Le Havre AC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Le Havre AC at Lorient | 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Lorient at Le Havre AC | 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Lorient: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Le Havre AC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lorient3-2-3 10th
- Lorient rating1419 13th of 18, 9 games
- Le Havre AC0-7-2 18th
- Le Havre AC rating1335 17th of 18, 9 games
Lorient 3-2-3
Ligue 1 · 10th
No stances yet today on $LORIENT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lorient bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Le Havre AC 0-7-2
Ligue 1 · 18th
No stances yet today on $LEHAVREAC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Le Havre AC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Lorient at Le Havre AC
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Model: Lorient 41% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Lorient 1.6, Le Havre AC 1.4; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 37%, Polymarket 37% for Lorient. Lorient at Le Havre AC, Sun, Nov 8, 11:15 AM ET.