Ligue 1 closed with Paris Saint-Germain winning 5-1 at Le Havre AC, a margin of four in the away side's favour. Our model had Le Havre at 12 percent before kickoff, and the crowd has not registered a pick yet.
Ligue 1 · · Stade Océane · every Ligue 1 line
Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Havre AC: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026
- Final scoreParis Saint-Germain 5, Le Havre AC 1 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerParis Saint-Germain 70%
- Pregame Projected scoreParis Saint-Germain 2.0, Le Havre AC 1.0
- Model spreadParis Saint-Germain −1 total 3
- Margin4 projected 1
- Total6 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Paris Saint-Germain or Le Havre AC: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 70–12Market –
FinalPregame: HAC 21%Baseline: HAC 12.6% (−8.5)Big swing: 27.8 ptsClutch window: 11:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSG | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| HAC | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
PSG 70.7%HAC 29.3%
Paris Saint-Germain at Le Havre AC win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for HAC over the last 10:00
Big swing27.8 ptstoward PSG at 27:00 of game time
Clutch window11:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineHAC 12.6%game average, −8.5 points from the pregame 21.0%
Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Havre AC live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | PSG | HAC |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | PSG70.7% | HAC29.3% |
| Shots | PSG15 | HAC14 |
| Shots on target | PSG10 | HAC5 |
| Corners | PSG3 | HAC5 |
| Passes completed | PSG710/776 | HAC243/303 |
| Saves | PSG4 | HAC5 |
| Fouls | PSG11 | HAC14 |
| Offsides | PSG1 | HAC3 |
| Yellow cards | PSG0 | HAC0 |
| Red cards | PSG0 | HAC0 |
Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Havre AC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | PSG | HAC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PSG5 | HAC1 |
| Average win probability | PSG87% | HAC13% |
| Longest scoring run | PSG+5 | HAC+1 |
| Time leading | PSG59:00 | HAC8:00 |
Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Havre AC odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET
Paris Saint-Germain70%
Win chanceLe Havre AC12%
SpreadPSG −1closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline−237away / +480draw / +705homeaway / draw / home
Line movementHAC win chance, 5 stored lines
−8 pts for HAC between Oct 29 and Oct 30
25%7%
Oct 29Oct 30
Every stored line
| Stored | HAC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 12% | −8 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 20% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 20% | — |
- Ratings
- HAC 1344 · PSG 1634
- Home spread
- +1
- Stored
- Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-30 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Paris Saint-Germain 5, Le Havre AC 1. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 30, 10:35 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
Paris Saint-GermainLe Havre AC
Neutrals only–
Paris Saint-GermainLe Havre AC
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Le Havre AC–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Le Havre AC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Paris Saint-Germain a 1-point favorite, with a 70% chance to win and a 17% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Le Havre AC 1335 (17th of 18), Paris Saint-Germain 1642 (1st). The Le Havre AC are 0-7-2; the Paris Saint-Germain are 6-1-2. The Le Havre AC have won 0 of their last 5; the Paris Saint-Germain 5 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Le Havre AC won 0, the Paris Saint-Germain 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Paris Saint-Germain
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Villarreal | W 6–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Le Havre AC | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lyon | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Barcelona | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Strasbourg | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Le Havre AC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marseille | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AJ Auxerre | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lille | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toulouse | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain at Le Havre AC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Le Havre AC at Paris Saint-Germain | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Le Havre AC at Paris Saint-Germain | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Paris Saint-Germain at Le Havre AC | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Le Havre AC at Paris Saint-Germain | 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Paris Saint-Germain at Le Havre AC | 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Paris Saint-Germain: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Le Havre AC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Paris Saint-Germain6-1-2 1st
- Paris Saint-Germain rating1642 1st of 18, 9 games
- Le Havre AC0-7-2 18th
- Le Havre AC rating1335 17th of 18, 9 games
Paris Saint-Germain 6-1-2
Ligue 1 · 1st
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PSG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PSG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PSG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PSG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Paris Saint-Germain bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Le Havre AC 0-7-2
Ligue 1 · 18th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $LEHAVREAC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $LEHAVREAC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $LEHAVREAC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $LEHAVREAC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Le Havre AC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Paris Saint-Germain at Le Havre AC
Sign in to post a take on $PSGLEHAVREAC261030: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Paris Saint-Germain 5, Le Havre AC 1. Bandwagon's model had the Paris Saint-Germain at 70% and projected Paris Saint-Germain 2.0, Le Havre AC 1.0; spread Paris Saint-Germain −1, total 3.