Troyes vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerParis Saint-Germain 81%
- Projected scoreParis Saint-Germain 2.4, Troyes 0.6
- Model spreadParis Saint-Germain −2 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Troyes or Paris Saint-Germain: the bandwagon
Axle 7–81Market 5–87
Troyes at Paris Saint-Germain win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Troyes vs Paris Saint-Germain live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Troyes vs Paris Saint-Germain team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TRY | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TRY– | PSG– |
| Average win probability | TRY– | PSG– |
| Longest scoring run | TRY– | PSG– |
| Time leading | TRY– | PSG– |
Troyes vs Paris Saint-Germain model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | PSG win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:37 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:13 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 81% | −1 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:59 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET | 82% | +1 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 81% | +6 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 75% | — |
- Ratings
- PSG 1642 · TRY 1365
- Home spread
- −2
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Troyes vs Paris Saint-Germain odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Paris Saint-Germain at 87%, Polymarket at 87%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 81%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TRY | Draw | PSG | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 5% | 7% | 87% | ||
| Polymarket | 4% | 8% | 87% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 7% | 12% | 81% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Troyes vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Paris Saint-Germain a 2-point favorite at home, with a 81% chance to win and a 12% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Paris Saint-Germain 1642 (1st of 18), Troyes 1365 (16th). The Paris Saint-Germain are 6-1-2; the Troyes are 2-5-2. The Paris Saint-Germain have won 5 of their last 5; the Troyes 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Paris Saint-Germain won 2, the Troyes 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Troyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Le Mans | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toulouse | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lens | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marseille | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Angers | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Paris Saint-Germain
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Villarreal | W 6–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Le Havre AC | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lyon | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Barcelona | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Strasbourg | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain at Troyes | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Troyes at Paris Saint-Germain | 3–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Troyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Paris Saint-Germain: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Troyes2-5-2 16th
- Troyes rating1365 16th of 18, 9 games
- Paris Saint-Germain6-1-2 1st
- Paris Saint-Germain rating1642 1st of 18, 9 games
Troyes 2-5-2
Ligue 1 · 16th
No stances yet today on $TROYES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Troyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Paris Saint-Germain 6-1-2
Ligue 1 · 1st
No stances yet today on $PSG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Paris Saint-Germain bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Troyes at Paris Saint-Germain
Sign in to post a take on $TROYESPSG261107: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Paris Saint-Germain 81% to win, draw 12%. Projected score Paris Saint-Germain 2.4, Troyes 0.6; spread Paris Saint-Germain −2, total 3. Kalshi 87%, Polymarket 87% for Paris Saint-Germain. Troyes at Paris Saint-Germain, Sat, Nov 7, 2:45 PM ET.