Strasbourg vs Toulouse prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerToulouse 41%
- Projected scoreToulouse 1.6, Strasbourg 1.4
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Strasbourg or Toulouse: the bandwagon
Axle 32–41Market 28–46
Strasbourg at Toulouse win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Strasbourg vs Toulouse live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Strasbourg vs Toulouse team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | STR | TOU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | STR– | TOU– |
| Average win probability | STR– | TOU– |
| Longest scoring run | STR– | TOU– |
| Time leading | STR– | TOU– |
Strasbourg vs Toulouse model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:37 PM ET | 41% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 42% | −1 |
| Nov 1, 1:13 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 43% | −2 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:59 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 45% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 45% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 48% | — |
- Ratings
- TOU 1435 · STR 1458
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Strasbourg vs Toulouse odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Toulouse at 46%, Polymarket at 46%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 41%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | STR | Draw | TOU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 28% | 26% | 46% | ||
| Polymarket | 28% | 26% | 46% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 32% | 26% | 41% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Strasbourg vs Toulouse prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Toulouse the favorite, with a 41% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Toulouse 1435 (10th of 18), Strasbourg 1458 (9th). The Toulouse are 2-3-4; the Strasbourg are 3-5-1. The Toulouse have won 2 of their last 5; the Strasbourg 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Toulouse won 2, the Strasbourg 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Strasbourg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs AJ Auxerre | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stade Rennais | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nice | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Paris FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Toulouse
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse at Strasbourg | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Strasbourg at Toulouse | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toulouse at Strasbourg | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Strasbourg at Toulouse | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Strasbourg at Toulouse | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toulouse at Strasbourg | 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Strasbourg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Toulouse: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Strasbourg3-5-1 13th
- Strasbourg rating1458 9th of 18, 9 games
- Toulouse2-3-4 12th
- Toulouse rating1435 10th of 18, 9 games
Strasbourg 3-5-1
Ligue 1 · 13th
No stances yet today on $STRASBOURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Strasbourg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Toulouse 2-3-4
Ligue 1 · 12th
No stances yet today on $TOULOUSE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toulouse bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Strasbourg at Toulouse
Sign in to post a take on $STRASBOURGTOULOUSE261106: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
Model: Toulouse 41% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Toulouse 1.6, Strasbourg 1.4; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 46%, Polymarket 46% for Toulouse. Strasbourg at Toulouse, Fri, Nov 6, 2:45 PM ET.