Strasbourg and AJ Auxerre are level 0-0 at the 4' mark. The model gives Strasbourg 51 percent, a narrow edge, and the crowd has cast zero picks so far.
Ligue 1 · · Stade de la Meinau · every Ligue 1 line
AJ Auxerre vs Strasbourg: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreAJ Auxerre 1, Strasbourg 5 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerStrasbourg 51%
- Pregame Projected scoreStrasbourg 2.0, AJ Auxerre 1.5
- Model spreadStrasbourg −0.5 total 3.5
- Margin4 projected 0.5
- Total6 projected 3.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
AJ Auxerre or Strasbourg: the bandwagon
Axle 25–51Market –
FinalPregame: STR 63%Baseline: STR 79.6% (+16.4)Big swing: 26.3 ptsClutch window: 12:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| AUX | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| STR | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
AUX 35.8%STR 64.2%
AJ Auxerre at Strasbourg win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for STR over the last 10:00
Big swing26.3 ptstoward STR at 43:00 of game time
Clutch window12:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineSTR 79.6%game average, +16.4 points from the pregame 63.3%
AJ Auxerre vs Strasbourg live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | AUX | STR |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | AUX35.8% | STR64.2% |
| Shots | AUX6 | STR19 |
| Shots on target | AUX2 | STR6 |
| Corners | AUX0 | STR5 |
| Passes completed | AUX257/323 | STR513/578 |
| Saves | AUX1 | STR1 |
| Fouls | AUX18 | STR11 |
| Offsides | AUX0 | STR3 |
| Yellow cards | AUX4 | STR0 |
| Red cards | AUX1 | STR0 |
AJ Auxerre vs Strasbourg team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | AUX | STR |
|---|---|---|
| Score | AUX1 | STR5 |
| Average win probability | AUX20% | STR80% |
| Longest scoring run | AUX+1 | STR+3 |
| Time leading | AUX0:00 | STR47:00 |
AJ Auxerre vs Strasbourg odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET
AJ Auxerre25%
Win chanceStrasbourg51%
SpreadSTR −0.5closing model spread
Total3.5
Moneyline+308away / +308draw / −104homeaway / draw / home
Line movementSTR win chance, 11 stored lines
No move
57%45%
Oct 29Oct 30Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | STR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:59 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 51% | — |
- Ratings
- STR 1443 · AUX 1400
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-01 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: AJ Auxerre 1, Strasbourg 5. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 10:02 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
AJ AuxerreStrasbourg
Neutrals only–
AJ AuxerreStrasbourg
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Strasbourg–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
AJ Auxerre vs Strasbourg prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Strasbourg a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 51% chance to win and a 24% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Strasbourg 1458 (9th of 18), AJ Auxerre 1385 (14th). The Strasbourg are 3-5-1; the AJ Auxerre are 3-5-1. The Strasbourg have won 1 of their last 5; the AJ Auxerre 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Strasbourg won 4, the AJ Auxerre 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
AJ Auxerre
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Strasbourg | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Le Mans | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Le Havre AC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stade Rennais | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brest | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Strasbourg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs AJ Auxerre | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stade Rennais | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nice | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Paris FC | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg at AJ Auxerre | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| AJ Auxerre at Strasbourg | 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Strasbourg at AJ Auxerre | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| AJ Auxerre at Strasbourg | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| AJ Auxerre at Strasbourg | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Strasbourg at AJ Auxerre | 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
AJ Auxerre: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Strasbourg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- AJ Auxerre3-5-1 14th
- AJ Auxerre rating1385 14th of 18, 9 games
- Strasbourg3-5-1 13th
- Strasbourg rating1458 9th of 18, 9 games
AJ Auxerre 3-5-1
Ligue 1 · 14th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $AUXERRE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $AUXERRE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $AUXERRE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $AUXERRE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the AJ Auxerre bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Strasbourg 3-5-1
Ligue 1 · 13th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $STRASBOURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $STRASBOURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $STRASBOURG
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $STRASBOURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Strasbourg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on AJ Auxerre at Strasbourg
Sign in to post a take on $AUXERRESTRASBOURG261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: AJ Auxerre 1, Strasbourg 5. Bandwagon's model had the Strasbourg at 51% and projected Strasbourg 2.0, AJ Auxerre 1.5; spread Strasbourg −0.5, total 3.5.