Toulouse vs Marseille: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreToulouse 0, Marseille 2 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerMarseille 56%
- Pregame Projected scoreMarseille 1.8, Toulouse 1.3
- Model spreadMarseille −0.5 total 3
- Margin2 projected 0.5
- Total2 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Toulouse or Marseille: the bandwagon
Axle 21–56Market –
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| TOU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OLM | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Toulouse at Marseille win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Toulouse vs Marseille live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | TOU | OLM |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | TOU56.4% | OLM43.6% |
| Shots | TOU14 | OLM13 |
| Shots on target | TOU7 | OLM3 |
| Corners | TOU3 | OLM4 |
| Passes completed | TOU516/610 | OLM400/478 |
| Saves | TOU1 | OLM6 |
| Fouls | TOU14 | OLM14 |
| Offsides | TOU4 | OLM1 |
| Yellow cards | TOU1 | OLM2 |
| Red cards | TOU0 | OLM0 |
Toulouse vs Marseille team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | TOU | OLM |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TOU0 | OLM2 |
| Average win probability | TOU6% | OLM94% |
| Longest scoring run | TOU+1 | OLM+2 |
| Time leading | TOU0:00 | OLM88:00 |
Toulouse vs Marseille odds
Every stored line
| Stored | OLM win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 1:13 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:13 PM ET | 56% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET | 56% | +1 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:59 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 55% | — |
- Ratings
- OLM 1517 · TOU 1445
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 1:13 PM ET · 2026-11-01 18:13 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Toulouse 0, Marseille 2. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Toulouse vs Marseille prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Marseille a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 56% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Marseille 1526 (4th of 18), Toulouse 1435 (10th). The Marseille are 5-4; the Toulouse are 2-3-4. The Marseille have won 4 of their last 5; the Toulouse 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Marseille won 3, the Toulouse 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Toulouse
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Marseille | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Troyes | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Le Mans | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AS Monaco | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Le Havre AC | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Marseille
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Toulouse | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Le Havre AC | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Angers | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troyes | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Paris Saint-Germain | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
Injuries
Toulouse: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Marseille: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Toulouse2-3-4 12th
- Toulouse rating1435 10th of 18, 9 games
- Marseille5-4 6th
- Marseille rating1526 4th of 18, 9 games
Toulouse 2-3-4
Ligue 1 · 12th
No stances yet today on $TOULOUSE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toulouse bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Marseille 5-4
Ligue 1 · 6th
No stances yet today on $MARSEILLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Marseille bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Toulouse at Marseille
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