Lille vs Stade Rennais prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerStade Rennais 38%
- Projected scorelevel, 1.5 each draw 26%
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Lille or Stade Rennais: the bandwagon
Axle 35–38Market 30–45
Lille at Stade Rennais win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Lille vs Stade Rennais live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Lille vs Stade Rennais team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | LILL | REN |
|---|---|---|
| Score | LILL– | REN– |
| Average win probability | LILL– | REN– |
| Longest scoring run | LILL– | REN– |
| Time leading | LILL– | REN– |
Lille vs Stade Rennais model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | REN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:37 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 4:44 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:13 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:08 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 10:59 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:00 PM ET | 38% | −1 |
| Oct 30, 3:59 PM ET | 39% | −3 |
| Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 42% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 42% | −5 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET | 47% | — |
- Ratings
- REN 1490 · LILL 1536
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Lille vs Stade Rennais odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Stade Rennais at 45%, Polymarket at 45%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 38%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | LILL | Draw | REN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 30% | 25% | 45% | ||
| Polymarket | 30% | 25% | 45% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 35% | 26% | 38% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Lille vs Stade Rennais prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Stade Rennais the favorite, with a 38% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Stade Rennais 1490 (7th of 18), Lille 1536 (2nd). The Stade Rennais are 5-3-1; the Lille are 5-1-3. The Stade Rennais have won 2 of their last 5; the Lille 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Stade Rennais won 1, the Lille 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Lille
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Lens | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AS Monaco | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brest | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arsenal | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Le Havre AC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Stade Rennais
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Nice | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Strasbourg | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Paris FC | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AJ Auxerre | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lyon | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lille at Stade Rennais | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Stade Rennais at Lille | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Lille at Stade Rennais | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Stade Rennais at Lille | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Stade Rennais at Lille | 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Lille at Stade Rennais | 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Lille: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Stade Rennais: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lille5-1-3 2nd
- Lille rating1536 2nd of 18, 9 games
- Stade Rennais5-3-1 5th
- Stade Rennais rating1490 7th of 18, 9 games
Lille 5-1-3
Ligue 1 · 2nd
No stances yet today on $LILLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lille bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Stade Rennais 5-3-1
Ligue 1 · 5th
No stances yet today on $RENNES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Stade Rennais bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Lille at Stade Rennais
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Model: Stade Rennais 38% to win, draw 26%. Projected score level, 1.5 each; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 45%, Polymarket 45% for Stade Rennais. Lille at Stade Rennais, Sun, Nov 8, 9:00 AM ET.