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Axle 2.078% straight up465 games
Ligue 1 · · Allianz Riviera · every Ligue 1 line

Stade Rennais vs Nice: final score and how the prediction did, October 30, 2026

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated

Stade Rennais or Nice: the bandwagon

Bandwagon

Be the first on the bandwagon

Stade Rennais▲ Hop on▼ Jump off
Nice▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Axle 45–30Market –

FinalPregame: NICE 43%Baseline: NICE 75.5% (+33.0)Big swing: 30.6 ptsClutch window: none
Stade Rennais
Record 5-3-1
2+15+2
Nice
Record 4-3-2
Score by period
Team12T
REN112
NICE325
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
REN 52.6%NICE 47.4%

Stade Rennais at Nice win probability

Bandwagon's model
Last update: 2nd halfFetched at
Win probability for NICE: 90 points, 43% at the start, 100% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0'45'90'NICE 100%REN 0%
Win probability for NICE: 90 points, 43% at the start, 100% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0'45'90'NICE 100%REN 0%

Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is computed

The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.

MomentumStable+0.0 points for NICE over the last 10:00
Big swing30.6 ptstoward NICE at 35:00 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineNICE 75.5%game average, +33.0 points from the pregame 42.6%

Stade Rennais vs Nice live stats

Team totals read from the league's public game summary
Live team statistics
StatRENNICE
PossessionREN52.6%NICE47.4%
ShotsREN18NICE17
Shots on targetREN9NICE8
CornersREN7NICE4
Passes completedREN397/467NICE351/419
SavesREN3NICE7
FoulsREN10NICE8
OffsidesREN3NICE2
Yellow cardsREN3NICE4
Red cardsREN0NICE0

Stade Rennais vs Nice team breakdown

From the stored in-game series
Team breakdown
StatRENNICE
ScoreREN2NICE5
Average win probabilityREN24%NICE76%
Longest scoring runREN+1NICE+3
Time leadingREN0:00NICE58:00

Stade Rennais vs Nice odds

Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET
Stade Rennais45%
Win chance
Nice30%
Draw 26%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+124away / +287draw / +238homeaway / draw / home
Line movementNICE win chance, 6 stored lines
−1 pts for NICE between Oct 29 and Oct 30
36%24%
Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET: NICE 31%Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET: NICE 31%Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET: NICE 30%Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET: NICE 30%Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET: NICE 30%Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET: NICE 30%
Oct 29Oct 30
Every stored line
StoredNICE winMove
Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET30%0
Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET30%0
Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET30%0
Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET30%−1
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET31%0
Oct 29, 1:03 AM ET31%—
Ratings
NICE 1404 · REN 1512
Home spread
PK
Stored
Oct 30, 3:54 PM ET · 2026-10-30 19:54 UTC
Version
Axle 2.0

How the model works

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Result: Stade Rennais 2, Nice 5. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.

How this line is made

In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

  • Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
  • Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
  • Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
  • Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

  • Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
  • Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
  • Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 30, 10:35 AM UTC

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got: bandwagon versus model

Who ya got · 1 pick

Be the first on the bandwagon

Stade RennaisNice
Neutrals only–
Stade RennaisNice
Picks locked at kickoff.
Bandwagon minus model, Nice–

1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Stade Rennais vs Nice prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Stade Rennais the favorite, with a 45% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Nice 1426 (11th of 18), Stade Rennais 1490 (7th). The Nice are 4-3-2; the Stade Rennais are 5-3-1. The Nice have won 4 of their last 5; the Stade Rennais 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Nice won 3, the Stade Rennais 3.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Recent form

Stade Rennais

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
at NiceL 2–5––matchup
vs StrasbourgW 3–0––matchup
at Paris FCL 3–4––matchup
vs AJ AuxerreW 4–1––matchup
at LyonL 0–4––matchup

Nice

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
vs Stade RennaisW 5–2––matchup
at BrestW 2–1––matchup
at LyonL 1–2––matchup
vs StrasbourgW 2–1––matchup
vs LilleW 2–1––matchup

Head-to-head

GameKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
Stade Rennais at Nice4–0––matchup
Nice at Stade Rennais2–1––matchup
Nice at Stade Rennais0–2––matchup
Stade Rennais at Nice2–3––matchup
Nice at Stade Rennais0–2––matchup
Stade Rennais at Nice0–2––matchup

Injuries

Stade Rennais: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

Nice: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings
  • Stade Rennais5-3-1 5th
  • Stade Rennais rating1490 7th of 18, 9 games
  • Nice4-3-2 8th
  • Nice rating1426 11th of 18, 9 games

Stade Rennais 5-3-1

Ligue 1 · 5th

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $RENNES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $RENNES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $RENNES
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $RENNES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Stade Rennais bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Stade Rennais roster, schedule and more

Nice 4-3-2

Ligue 1 · 8th

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NICE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NICE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NICE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $NICE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nice bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Nice roster, schedule and more

Takes on Stade Rennais at Nice

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