Final: Penn State 31, Purdue 17, and the model had the Nittany Lions at 82 percent going in. The crowd had no picks logged, so the neutrals stayed quiet while the Boilermakers' fans kept their own counsel.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scorePurdue 17, Penn State 31 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerPenn State 82%
- Pregame Projected scorePenn State 35, Purdue 20
- Model spreadPenn State −15 total 54.5
- Margin14 projected 15
- Total48 projected 54.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Purdue Boilermakers or Penn State Nittany Lions: the bandwagon
Axle 18–82Market 23–78
FinalPregame: PSU 82%Baseline: PSU 90.2% (+7.9)Big swing: 12.1 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
| PSU | 14 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.2 points for PSU over the last 5:00
Big swing12.1 ptstoward PUR at 11:51 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselinePSU 90.2%game average, +7.9 points from the pregame 82.3%
Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | PUR175 | PSU457 |
| First downs | PUR9 | PSU22 |
| 3rd down | PUR2/11 | PSU5/13 |
| 4th down | PUR1/2 | PSU3/3 |
| Turnovers | PUR2 | PSU0 |
| Penalties-yards | PUR4-23 | PSU6-65 |
| Time of possession | PUR16:33 | PSU43:27 |
Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | PUR | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | PUR17 | PSU31 |
| Average win probability | PUR10% | PSU90% |
| Longest scoring run | PUR+7 | PSU+17 |
| Time leading | PUR0:00 | PSU40:41 |
Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET
Boilermakers18%
Win chanceNittany Lions82%
SpreadPSU −15closing model spread
Total54.5
Moneyline+468away / −468homeaway / home
Line movementPSU win chance, 24 stored lines
+1 pts for PSU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
88%75%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | PSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 82% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 81% | — |
- Ratings
- PSU 1567 · PUR 1405
- Home spread
- −15
- Stored
- Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET · 2026-10-31 23:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Purdue Boilermakers 17, Penn State Nittany Lions 31. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
BoilermakersNittany Lions
Neutrals only–
BoilermakersNittany Lions
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Nittany Lions–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Purdue vs Penn State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Nittany Lions at 78% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 78% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 82% when last read, .
| Source | PUR | PSU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 23% | 78% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 23% | 78% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 18% | 82% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, PSU: −5Polymarket minus model, PSU: −5
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Purdue Boilermakers vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nittany Lions a 15-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 54.5. Ratings: Nittany Lions 1580 (39th of 138), Boilermakers 1391 (106th). The Nittany Lions have won 1 of their last 5; the Boilermakers 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Nittany Lions won 2, the Boilermakers 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Purdue Boilermakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Penn State Nittany Lions | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Huskies | L 26–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Minnesota Golden Gophers | W 41–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Illinois Fighting Illini | W 24–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 10–49 | – | – | matchup |
Penn State Nittany Lions
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Purdue Boilermakers | W 31–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | L 18–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs USC Trojans | L 23–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 13–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wisconsin Badgers | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers | 49–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers | 35–31 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Purdue Boilermakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Penn State Nittany Lions: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Boilermakers– 15th · L2
- Boilermakers rating1391 106th of 138, 7 games
- Nittany Lions– 14th · W1
- Nittany Lions rating1580 39th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 15th · streak L2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PUR
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PUR
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PUR
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PUR: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Purdue Boilermakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 14th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PSU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $PSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Penn State Nittany Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Purdue Boilermakers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Sign in to post a take on $PURPSU261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Purdue 17, Penn State 31. Bandwagon's model had the Penn State at 82% and projected Penn State 35, Purdue 20; spread Penn State −15, total 54.5. Last read: Kalshi 78%, Polymarket 78% for Penn State.