Kickoff at TCU, 0-0, and the model has the Horned Frogs at 76 percent to win. The crowd has not weighed in yet, so the only number on the board right now is the model's.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Kansas Jayhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreKansas 16, TCU 22 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerTCU 76%
- Pregame Projected scoreTCU 30, Kansas 18
- Model spreadTCU −11.5 total 48
- Margin6 projected 11.5
- Total38 projected 48
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Kansas Jayhawks or TCU Horned Frogs: the bandwagon
Axle 24–76Market 32–68
FinalPregame: TCU 76%Baseline: TCU 52.4% (−23.3)Big swing: 41.2 ptsClutch window: 15:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KU | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| TCU | 0 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 22 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to TCU+72.3 points for TCU over the last 5:00
Big swing41.2 ptstoward TCU at 55:12 of game time
Clutch window15:00within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineTCU 52.4%game average, −23.3 points from the pregame 75.7%
Kansas Jayhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | KU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | KU451 | TCU286 |
| First downs | KU20 | TCU19 |
| 3rd down | KU7/20 | TCU5/14 |
| 4th down | KU1/3 | TCU0/1 |
| Turnovers | KU2 | TCU1 |
| Penalties-yards | KU7-63 | TCU7-74 |
| Time of possession | KU38:57 | TCU21:03 |
Kansas Jayhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | KU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | KU16 | TCU22 |
| Average win probability | KU48% | TCU52% |
| Longest scoring run | KU+23 | TCU+20 |
| Time leading | KU34:54 | TCU11:38 |
Kansas Jayhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:56 PM ET
Jayhawks24%
Win chanceHorned Frogs76%
SpreadTCU −11.5closing model spread
Total48
Moneyline+312away / −312homeaway / home
Line movementTCU win chance, 28 stored lines
−2 pts for TCU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
83%70%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | TCU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:56 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:56 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:51 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:32 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 76% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 76% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 78% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 78% | — |
- Ratings
- TCU 1544 · KU 1439
- Home spread
- −11.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:56 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:56 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread −11 → −11.5
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Kansas Jayhawks 16, TCU Horned Frogs 22. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
Be the first on the bandwagon
JayhawksHorned Frogs
Neutrals only–
JayhawksHorned Frogs
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Horned Frogs–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Kansas vs TCU odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Horned Frogs at 68% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 68% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 76% when last read, .
| Source | KU | TCU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 32% | 68% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 32% | 68% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 76% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, TCU: −8Polymarket minus model, TCU: −8
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Kansas Jayhawks vs TCU Horned Frogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Horned Frogs a 11.5-point favorite at home, with a 76% chance to win. The model total is 48. Ratings: Horned Frogs 1557 (51st of 138), Jayhawks 1426 (93rd). The Horned Frogs have won 2 of their last 5; the Jayhawks 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Horned Frogs won 2, the Jayhawks 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Kansas Jayhawks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at TCU Horned Frogs | L 16–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Baylor Bears | W 25–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas State Wildcats | L 24–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Utah Utes | L 24–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | W 55–0 | – | – | matchup |
TCU Horned Frogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Kansas Jayhawks | W 22–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs West Virginia Mountaineers | L 20–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Baylor Bears | W 17–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs BYU Cougars | L 10–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UCF Knights | L 13–21 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks | 38–27 | – | – | matchup | |
| TCU Horned Frogs at Kansas Jayhawks | 38–31 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Kansas Jayhawks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
TCU Horned Frogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Jayhawks– 16th · L1
- Jayhawks rating1426 93rd of 138, 7 games
- Horned Frogs– 13th · W1
- Horned Frogs rating1557 51st of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 16th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $KU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $KU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $KU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $KU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Kansas Jayhawks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 13th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TCU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TCU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TCU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $TCU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the TCU Horned Frogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Kansas Jayhawks at TCU Horned Frogs
Sign in to post a take on $KUTCU261031: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: Kansas 16, TCU 22. Bandwagon's model had the TCU at 76% and projected TCU 30, Kansas 18; spread TCU −11.5, total 48. Last read: Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 68% for TCU.