Utah State opens at home with the model giving the Aggies a 77 percent chance, and the scoreboard is still 0-0 at 14:55 of the first. Colorado State has time to change that shape, but the early numbers lean green and gold.
FBS · · Maverik Stadium, Utah State · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Colorado State Rams vs Utah State Aggies: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreColorado State 14, Utah State 31 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerUtah State 77%
- Pregame Projected scoreUtah State 34, Colorado State 22
- Model spreadUtah State −12 total 56.5
- Margin17 projected 12
- Total45 projected 56.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Colorado State Rams or Utah State Aggies: the bandwagon
Axle 23–77Market 25–75
FinalPregame: USU 77%Baseline: USU 94.6% (+17.3)Big swing: 7.6 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 0 | 0 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
| USU | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for USU over the last 5:00
Big swing7.6 ptstoward USU at 2:34 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineUSU 94.6%game average, +17.3 points from the pregame 77.3%
Colorado State Rams vs Utah State Aggies live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | CSU263 | USU464 |
| First downs | CSU17 | USU25 |
| 3rd down | CSU4/11 | USU7/11 |
| 4th down | CSU2/3 | USU0/0 |
| Turnovers | CSU2 | USU0 |
| Penalties-yards | CSU3-35 | USU6-55 |
| Time of possession | CSU23:52 | USU36:08 |
Colorado State Rams vs Utah State Aggies team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | CSU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CSU14 | USU31 |
| Average win probability | CSU5% | USU95% |
| Longest scoring run | CSU+8 | USU+30 |
| Time leading | CSU0:00 | USU56:56 |
Colorado State Rams vs Utah State Aggies model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET
Rams23%
Win chanceAggies77%
SpreadUSU −12closing model spread
Total56.5
Moneyline+339away / −339homeaway / home
Line movementUSU win chance, 22 stored lines
−6 pts for USU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
88%72%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | USU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 77% | −6 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 83% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 83% | — |
- Ratings
- USU 1443 · CSU 1325
- Home spread
- −12
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET · 2026-10-31 22:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Colorado State Rams 14, Utah State Aggies 31. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Oct 31, 5:30 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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RamsAggies
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RamsAggies
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Aggies–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Colorado State vs Utah State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Aggies at 75% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 75% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 77% when last read, .
| Source | CSU | USU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 25% | 75% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 25% | 75% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 23% | 77% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, USU: −3Polymarket minus model, USU: −3
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Colorado State Rams vs Utah State Aggies prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aggies a 12-point favorite at home, with a 77% chance to win. The model total is 56.5. Ratings: Aggies 1461 (82nd of 138), Rams 1307 (127th). The Aggies have won 3 of their last 5; the Rams 1 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Aggies won 2, the Rams 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Colorado State Rams
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Utah State Aggies | L 14–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs San Diego State Aztecs | W 56–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 27–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon State Beavers | L 26–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTSA Roadrunners | L 45–59 | – | – | matchup |
Utah State Aggies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Colorado State Rams | W 31–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Texas State Bobcats | L 17–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington State Cougars | W 17–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boise State Broncos | L 18–37 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Troy Trojans | W 21–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State Aggies at Colorado State Rams | 37–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies | 24–44 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah State Aggies at Colorado State Rams | 17–13 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Colorado State Rams: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Utah State Aggies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Rams– 7th · L1
- Rams rating1307 127th of 138, 7 games
- Aggies– 6th · W1
- Aggies rating1461 82nd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak L1
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No stances yet today on $CSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Colorado State Rams bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 6th · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $USU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $USU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $USU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $USU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah State Aggies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies
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Final: Colorado State 14, Utah State 31. Bandwagon's model had the Utah State at 77% and projected Utah State 34, Colorado State 22; spread Utah State −12, total 56.5. Last read: Kalshi 75%, Polymarket 75% for Utah State.