Indiana opens at 0-0 with the Hoosiers' model at 92 percent to win, which is a lot of confidence for a kickoff. Minnesota is still in it on the scoreboard, and the crowd has not weighed in yet.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Indiana Hoosiers: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreMinnesota 16, Indiana 23 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerIndiana 92%
- Pregame Projected scoreIndiana 36, Minnesota 12
- Model spreadIndiana −24.5 total 48
- Margin7 projected 24.5
- Total39 projected 48
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Minnesota Golden Gophers or Indiana Hoosiers: the bandwagon
Axle 8–92Market 8–92
Final · OTPregame: IU 92%Baseline: IU 78.6% (−13.7)Big swing: 63.7 ptsClutch window: 17:30
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MINN | 3 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| IU | 7 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 23 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to IU+68.4 points for IU over the last 5:00
Big swing63.7 ptstoward IU at 60:00 of game time
Clutch window17:30within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineIU 78.6%game average, −13.7 points from the pregame 92.3%
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Indiana Hoosiers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | MINN | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | MINN215 | IU419 |
| First downs | MINN10 | IU21 |
| 3rd down | MINN3/15 | IU2/13 |
| 4th down | MINN1/2 | IU0/1 |
| Turnovers | MINN1 | IU2 |
| Penalties-yards | MINN8-60 | IU8-48 |
| Time of possession | MINN28:27 | IU31:33 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Indiana Hoosiers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | MINN | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MINN16 | IU23 |
| Average win probability | MINN21% | IU79% |
| Longest scoring run | MINN+7 | IU+9 |
| Time leading | MINN27:43 | IU18:22 |
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Indiana Hoosiers model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET
Golden Gophers8%
Win chanceHoosiers92%
SpreadIU −24.5closing model spread
Total48
Moneyline+1206away / −1206homeaway / home
Line movementIU win chance, 24 stored lines
−2 pts for IU between Oct 28 and Oct 31
100%87%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | IU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 92% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 94% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 94% | — |
- Ratings
- IU 1829 · MINN 1534
- Home spread
- −24.5
- Stored
- Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET · 2026-10-31 23:21 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Minnesota Golden Gophers 16, Indiana Hoosiers 23. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · no picks yet
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Golden GophersHoosiers
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Golden GophersHoosiers
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Hoosiers–
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Minnesota vs Indiana odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Hoosiers at 93% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 92% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 92% when last read, ; the two venues were 1 point apart at those reads.
| Source | MINN | IU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 8% | 93% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 9% | 92% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 8% | 92% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, IU: 0Polymarket minus model, IU: −1
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Indiana Hoosiers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hoosiers a 24.5-point favorite at home, with a 92% chance to win. The model total is 48. Ratings: Hoosiers 1834 (1st of 138), Golden Gophers 1529 (59th). The Hoosiers have won 4 of their last 5; the Golden Gophers 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Minnesota Golden Gophers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Indiana Hoosiers | L 16–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | W 13–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Purdue Boilermakers | L 13–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Michigan Wolverines | W 20–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Washington Huskies | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup |
Indiana Hoosiers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Golden Gophers | W 23–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | W 13–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | L 15–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | W 47–15 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Minnesota Golden Gophers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Indiana Hoosiers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Gophers– 8th · L1
- Golden Gophers rating1529 59th of 138, 7 games
- Hoosiers– 2nd · W2
- Hoosiers rating1834 1st of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak L1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $MINN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $MINN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $MINN
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $MINN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Minnesota Golden Gophers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W2
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $IU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $IU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $IU
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $IU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indiana Hoosiers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Minnesota Golden Gophers at Indiana Hoosiers
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Final: Minnesota 16, Indiana 23. Bandwagon's model had the Indiana at 92% and projected Indiana 36, Minnesota 12; spread Indiana −24.5, total 48. Last read: Kalshi 93%, Polymarket 92% for Indiana.